calling preflop 4bets

[Lucky Clubs]

In hindsight... standard. Fold flop.

[Troll_Inc]

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yes, TT55 wouldn't be a 3bet, either. Nor would many single-pair hands. connected pair hands, however, play almost as well as runs in this sort of situation, and often much better when it gets to be 3way+.


Very good stuff Silent, I was hoping when I posted this that you might chime in, and i appreciate your analysis. I did call the raise, and i knew in my gut it was justified, but i'd never seen the numbers properly run.

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I'm quite surprised that you don't do these simple calculations yourself. The process of doing it makes you a better player, because when you fool with stuff, you learn things.

For example, you are much better off 3 betting with a double suited rundown hand than your two pair hand. It slides your calling range all the way up to almost 70% of flops. And even if it is just one suit (much more common), it's ~63% of flops.

[NewGuy]

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For example, you are much better off 3 betting with a double suited rundown hand than your two pair hand. It slides your calling range all the way up to almost 70% of flops. And even if it is just one suit (much more common), it's ~63% of flops.

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Troll, where are you getting these precise % of flops you'd call down with? The 70% seems intuitively correct, but I'm assuming you're using a tool like ProkerTools to calculate these?

[Silent A]

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For example, you are much better off 3 betting with a double suited rundown hand than your two pair hand. It slides your calling range all the way up to almost 70% of flops. And even if it is just one suit (much more common), it's ~63% of flops.

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Troll, where are you getting these precise % of flops you'd call down with? The 70% seems intuitively correct, but I'm assuming you're using a tool like ProkerTools to calculate these?

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Yes, it's from PokerTools. You simply put your hand against AA** and choose the "graph" option. The site will create a graph that you can interpret roughly (as I did in the above posts) or there is a way to get the raw data that you can then put in a spreadsheet to calculate these things more exactly (just add "&g=oh&mode=data" to the end of the url after it displays the graph).

[Troll_Inc]

Yes, on Propokertools, hit "Graph".

You can also get the actual bucket numbers and plug into excel if you want to calculate things precisely. I recommend eyeballing it one time and then calculating it. You'll find that eyeballing it is probably "good enough", and certainly much faster.

[Silent A]

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Yes, on Propokertools, hit "Graph".

You can also get the actual bucket numbers and plug into excel if you want to calculate things precisely. I recommend eyeballing it one time and then calculating it. You'll find that eyeballing it is probably "good enough", and certainly much faster.

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I win!

[Silent A]

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For example, you are much better off 3 betting with a double suited rundown hand than your two pair hand. It slides your calling range all the way up to almost 70% of flops. And even if it is just one suit (much more common), it's ~63% of flops.

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Troll, where are you getting these precise % of flops you'd call down with? The 70% seems intuitively correct, but I'm assuming you're using a tool like ProkerTools to calculate these?

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I should point out that these results will give you an optimistically high expected value for your hand because there's no way to know what your actual equity will be on the flop, especially when it comes to flushes. So you have to decide in advance to play your flushes as if they were live, even if they're not.

[NewGuy]

Good stuff. Propokertools rocks for Omahaha

[Troll_Inc]

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I should point out that these results will give you an optimistically high expected value for your hand because there's no way to know what your actual equity will be on the flop, especially when it comes to flushes. So you have to decide in advance to play your flushes as if they were live, even if they're not.

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The AAxx calculations already take this into account. If they didn't the 7788 hand's equity values would of course be higher.

What you meant to say is that the 78 hand may sometimes have a flush or flush draw that is not "good". But then there are times that AAxx hand might hit two pair or even an Ace but pays of an 8 high flush hand. But the chances that the AAxx hand will also have 2 hearts and a heart flush ends up winning is pretty small (I'm guessing no more than 6.8% of the time), not something that will affect these numbers greatly.

If you want to worry about stuff, I bet there is a higher chance that the AAxx opponent doesn't really have AAxx.

[Silent A]

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The AAxx calculations already take this into account. If they didn't the 7788 hand's equity values would of course be higher.

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Yes, but the simulation knows what the suits and side cards are but you never will. If I understand the algorithm correctly, the program chooses the random side cards first, then a random flop, then simulates a bunch of turns and rivers to estimate the equity for that flop. It then picks a new random and and flop, etc.

So, if hero flops a flush it will come up as either a virtual zero or a virtual 100%. But the hero with the 8-high flush doesn't know which one he's in and he has to call both becasue he's good more often then not. This means that the hero will not only be calling the flops that give him 28+% equity, but also some very close to zero. The same applies to any time he flops a flush draw.

This is not trivial since having a live heart draw means hero has a 43.5% instead of 37.5% equity pre-flop and the presence of hearts on the flop is a key part of the decision whether to call or fold.

However, as I already said, this isn't enough of a factor to make calling the 4-bet -EV in this case.

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But then there are times that AAxx hand might hit two pair or even an Ace but pays of an 8 high flush hand.

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All the analysis here assumes that villain is calling any flop. I can't imagine any 3 cards that could come down and force the AAxx to fold needing only 28%.