AQ ez?

[MacGuyV]

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Only ~80 hands on these players. UTG is LP in the 45/5/<1 range but has raised the last couple hands PF and may be on tilt. SB is around 28/22 no notes but probly plays pretty well.

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Gib]

it's looking very grim for ole AQ. I'm a muckin.

[Nick C]

Wow, what an annoying spot to be in.

I'm having trouble figuring out how you could be doing anything other than drawing dead versus SB if he plays well (I suppose there's some chance you're tied with his AcQc or AdQd or drawing to three outs versus his KQs). But, then again, our read is somewhat sketchy and the pot is huge and there's that 22% preflop raise number . . .

Yuck. I guess I call and pray [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

[scottfred]

Theres a K and Q on board and the sb has only bet bet bet and he plays well so I think its a crying fold [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[27offsooot]

I think u're ahead pretty much never and tied almost never (5% AT MOST). And when u're not tied, u never have outs (both opponents can't have AA). I'd feel pretty good about folding the turn, especially since if u call turn, u're going to convince urself to call river.

4 handed with a possible tilter though makes this a tad tougher though, but i still think it's a def fold.

[jstill]

sb's got QQ or KK and the lap UTG has AA here almost always i think ( i doubt after the preflop cap hes capping AQ or JJ on the flop with those stats, even on serious tilt).

Either way for both of those not to be true and for u to have either the best hand or a split is quite a parlay. Not one we see here even close to 1:9 i don't think, which is about the odds u are getting on a calldown.

[jstill]

i didnt realize this was 4 handed not 6 so some of those raises give less info than otherwise but it doesnt change my action here. I dont think we re good nearly 1:9 to call down vs these two (or most any two opponents for that matter).

[ILOVEPOKER929]

If the SB plays well you can fold the flop once its capped.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
If the SB plays well you can fold the flop once its capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

28/22 no notes but probly plays pretty well

really, a 28/22 is probably a really solid player.

When he bet/3bets the flop, you can only hope he has KQ, so much for that plan.

On the turn, you only beat QJ from the SB, and TT-JJ from the UTG. How liking is this parley going to happen? Not often.


I would probably fold to the flop cap, you have 2 outs, or 0 outs.

Now fold the turn.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably fold to the flop cap, you have 2 outs, or 0 outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

You have 5 outs vs. KK (6 combos) on the flop, 2 outs vs. AA (3 combos), and 0 outs vs. QQ (1). The weighted outs is 3.6 outs. I believe this is the maximum # of outs, which is borderline to calling, getting 13.5:1 (bb). So we need to look at the other factors for and against calling.

For: AQ is within sbs range ON THE FLOP (and still weighted almost equally with other hands), it is 4 handed, UTG is on tilt.

Against: BIGGEST: If Turn and River brick off, we'll probably make a call down, cutting into our effective odds on the flop call.
Also, we do still need to worry about UTG having a better hand a reasonable percentage of the time, significantly cutting into our outs.

I do think the flop is a fold, but it's close.

On the turn, when sb fires again, we're crushed. I can't seem a sane player playing AQ like this.