Gutshot draw gets ugly (shorthanded)

[Fadook]

CO is laggy, 62/22 or something. BB is a maniac (68/36) who absolutely loves screwplaying. In a previous hand he treyed preflop with 55, checked flopped quads, check-raised the turn, and then checked the river.

Hero is BTN with AJo.
.5/1 4-handed.

CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

I'd still be willing to push my hand if I flop an A or J because BB could just be saying [censored] you with his cap.


Flop (12.5 SB): KQ7 rainbow.
BB checks, CO bets, Hero calls, BB raises, CO 3-bets, Hero?

I had a strong suspicion that BB was going to do that crap, but I guess the first call is still ok? Call again?

[DavidC]

This isn't a great spot, but I think it's a fairly clear call. I'm curious if anyone thinks it's close or even a fold maybe.

[LateFlag]

Easy call. You're getting 9:1 right now (7:1 if BB caps, I think), so the immediate odds are a little light, but you'll easily make that up against these guys if you hit on the turn.

[Douglas Leslie]

You're getting nine to one which might give you the implied odds to continue if you knew that the betting would end at the three level. Since I think that this betting is going to be capped I fold when it is three to me on the flop.

[LateFlag]

Upon further reflection, this is actually a closer call than I originally though.

If we knew with certainty that the maniac wouldn't cap, we'd be putting in 2 sbs at 9:1. That means we'd need to make up 4 sbs on the turn and river to justify our call on the flop, assuming we hit. Cake.

The problem is that the maniac is likely to cap. In that case, we're putting in 3 sbs at 7:1, so we need to make up 12 sbs later in the hand to justify our call. That's possible considering the two opponents involved in the hand, but it's hardly a sure thing.

I'm still calling this flop anyway. If villain forgets to cap, I definitely want to continue. If villain does cap, I'll need moderately good luck to squeeze an extra six BBs out of the hand, but that's not unrealistic. It's just worth noting that we'd really prefer that villain not cap.

[LukeSLTS]

I fold. This will get capped about 85% of the time. I don't think the implied odds are there.

[Fadook]

Bump cause I think this merits a bit more discussion. I lean towards folding because this is quite likely to be capped.

[Harv72b]

I lean towards raising because I think my hand is best a significant portion of the time, and I hold out the (perhaps vain) hopes that this will set me up to take a free card on the turn when CO pees his pants & BB decides to go for the ol' turn c/r again.

As played, I call the flop 3bet because we're getting almost good enough immediate odds to chase our 4-outer and it looks like we can be confident of winning a huge pot when we hit it (and you never know when our A outs are good as well). Even knowing that it's likely to be capped behind us I think the implied odds justify continuing.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
CO is laggy, 62/22 or something. BB is a maniac (68/36) who absolutely loves screwplaying.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call against these two. Your ace outs may even give you the best hand here.

[Fadook]

I called. Action went.

Flop (12.5 SB): KQ7 rainbow.
BB checks, CO bets, Hero calls, BB raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, BB caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn (12.25 BB): 4
BB checks, CO bets, Hero calls, BB raises, CO 3-bets, Hero?

Now can I fold?