NL100 - rivered Set. good fold?

MakeMuuney · #1 07-19-2007, 08:31 AM

Cryptologic Network No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($196.50)
MP ($106.55)
CO ($115.60)
Hero ($100)
SB ($110.95)
BB ($200.08)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.50, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls $9, BB folds.

Turn: ($30) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($30) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $19, SB raises to $97.95, Hero folds .

Villian is a regular TAG playing about 12/7/2.6 over 6000 Hands. Went to Showdown 27/ Won 55. Advice on all streets appreciated!

mertzo · #2 07-19-2007, 08:43 AM

Id let it go, but be careful if he starts doing this alot
Edit:

And i like the turncheck, the board is superdry, 90% of the times he is either checkraising or not paying off on two more VBs. I probably check this >60% of the times

Orsman · #3 07-19-2007, 08:43 AM

why are you checking turn?

river is a fold

MakeMuuney · #4 07-19-2007, 08:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
why are you checking turn?

river is a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

The way this hand played out it is a WA/WB situation on the Flop. There's no draw and my hand is basically face up if I bet Turn again. With a Turn bet i get stronger hands to raise me and put me in a dangerous spot. If I check though, I keep the pot small and might get value from weaker Aces by betting river or even hands like 88-TT.

Genz · #5 07-19-2007, 08:55 AM

Against a TAG that you can't value bet to death really, the turn check is good because it keeps the pot size reasonable against a tight player, avoids a c/r on a dry board and can induce bluffs. If villain had a set or aces up on the turn, I doubt that he'd go for another c/r on the river risking that his big hand gets checked through. So unless you have been checking behind every turn and then been betting every river, I smell something fishy about his river play. Maybe he sensed your smallish river bet as weakness. Would he really check a set on all three consecutive streets? if he missed his c/r on the river, put you on AK and thought you couldn't forego a bet on the river, that sounds like a great read and play to me. I don't think this is standard. Please teach me if you would play a set like this with villain's stats. I think I call here and see a PP a lot.

mertzo · #6 07-19-2007, 09:03 AM

Genz i definatly see you point, and bet-check-valuebet is really exploitable but this guy strike me as to nitty to be this creative. But if he starts doing this alot calling a % of the times definatly important

MakeMuuney · #7 07-19-2007, 09:04 AM

I really thought about this hand for a while and I believe that my range in this hand is often an A. His raise is Big and that's why I think he had a Full-House. He knows I will pay of with AJ,AQ,AK here most of the time. If he he had an Ace I could beat, he would probably not raise that much or lead out river.

Genz · #8 07-19-2007, 09:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Genz i definatly see you point, and bet-check-valuebet is really exploitable but this guy strike me as to nitty to be this creative. But if he starts doing this alot calling a % of the times definatly important

[/ QUOTE ]

I think exploiting it with a boat here is a far more creative process than using it for a bluff, tbh. I think there is a lot going on with how the hand actually happened. Timing tells etc. could be usefull. Quick check, long thinking then raise -> I will probably call. Long thinking, then check and then pretty quick raise -> I will fold and make a note.
Nitty players like him are more prone to bet their strong hands at some point. So unless OP has history with this guy, it's either a very good play by villain or a pretty crude bluff.

I'd love to hear others opinions on this hand.

Colombo · #9 07-19-2007, 09:12 AM

Bet the turn for sure. People love calling, don't analyze it so much. As played I'd snap call river. You've really underrepped your hand and your river beat is weak and could induce a bluff shove.

Genz · #10 07-19-2007, 09:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I really thought about this hand for a while and I believe that my range in this hand is often an A. His raise is Big and that's why I think he had a Full-House. He knows I will pay of with AJ,AQ,AK here most of the time. If he he had an Ace I could beat, he would probably not raise that much or lead out river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the way you played your hand, your range is KK, QQ, JJ that go for a small value-bet on the river just as much. It just looks like cbet on the flop and then on the river "well, the 2nd A makes it less likely that he has one and he has checked again. Maybe MHIG. I bet." on your part. I don't think that villain narrowed your range to an A based on your play unless he knows you so well that he knows that you'll always 2barrel your PPs and check behind your TPs. But that is rather unlikely. SB played his hand EXTREMELY passively on every street even facing passivity on your sied. If he really has 22, 77, TT, AK, I pay him off. And I think the size of his raise says more like: don't call me.