Turn semi-bluff against a TAGish character

[danzasmack]

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ur 2nd post in the thread listing worse hands that will call u did... not a big deal, just bein a nit

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holla obv meant A6

[Heisenb3rg]

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You wanna free SD raise when

a) you can fold a better hand

b) you can fold to a 3-bet

c) Villain wont fire his worse hands again on the river.


I doubt any of these conditions are fulfilled in this spot so I like calling better than raising.

That said. Raising cant be a huge mistake as hero has so many outs and I doubt it matters much what you do here.

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Once again I dont have to post anything meaningful becuz Oink explains it perfectly why this turn raise cannot be better than calling down in a vacuum. The only thing I want to add is that Oinks point B) about being able to fold to a 3bet, is not strictly true but is dependent on how much fold equity we have. Obviously the higher our fold equity the more likely it will be worth freeshowdowning the turn even if we have to call a 3bet. However, most of the time Oink's point B will be valid since our FE will generally not be high enough to overcome the dangers of having to call a 3bet.

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ILP, Oinks post totally ignored where the value of raising this hand comes into play. The river.
By raising the turn with close to even equity, youve gained initiative on the river and disguised your hand.

I wont list out all the scenarios for the value of disugising your hand and having iniative on the river.
Ill give a quick little rundown (yes therse payoff scenarios which mitigate these advantages, but they're siginificantly rarer).

A + gutshot river - by calling the turn youve weighted your hand to a likely A. You may not get ANY bets from pairs if this card falls, they will unlikely bet the river. If you raise the turn, they may weight your range to flush draws/overpairs and may pay off your ace with a pair.

Flush draw river -
If they hit their gutshot or 2pair on the river, you will likely get 4 and maybe even 5! bets into the pot whereas had you just called the turn you would likely have got 3.
(turn plus river)

You have to compare the value gained here to the value lost on the turn by calling an extre bet with 12 outs the times he 3-bets the turn with a better hand, or worse fold the pot if you get 3-bet bluffed.

Against a straightforward TAG I estimate its worth it.
Im not considering ANY fold equity.

[MrEngenic]

I would call, but I'm not sure that i the right play. He certainly played it strangely.

[MrEngenic]

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You wanna free SD raise when

a) you can fold a better hand

b) you can fold to a 3-bet

c) Villain wont fire his worse hands again on the river.


I doubt any of these conditions are fulfilled in this spot so I like calling better than raising.

That said. Raising cant be a huge mistake as hero has so many outs and I doubt it matters much what you do here.

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Once again I dont have to post anything meaningful becuz Oink explains it perfectly why this turn raise cannot be better than calling down in a vacuum. The only thing I want to add is that Oinks point B) about being able to fold to a 3bet, is not strictly true but is dependent on how much fold equity we have. Obviously the higher our fold equity the more likely it will be worth freeshowdowning the turn even if we have to call a 3bet. However, most of the time Oink's point B will be valid since our FE will generally not be high enough to overcome the dangers of having to call a 3bet.

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I think calling turn > raising turn > calling down. If I call turn I would fold the river UI. One reason for raising would be that he could fold a pair (I could see myself playing it this way if I was villain). If he won't fold a pair, I see less reason to raise.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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You wanna free SD raise when

a) you can fold a better hand

b) you can fold to a 3-bet

c) Villain wont fire his worse hands again on the river.


I doubt any of these conditions are fulfilled in this spot so I like calling better than raising.

That said. Raising cant be a huge mistake as hero has so many outs and I doubt it matters much what you do here.

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Once again I dont have to post anything meaningful becuz Oink explains it perfectly why this turn raise cannot be better than calling down in a vacuum. The only thing I want to add is that Oinks point B) about being able to fold to a 3bet, is not strictly true but is dependent on how much fold equity we have. Obviously the higher our fold equity the more likely it will be worth freeshowdowning the turn even if we have to call a 3bet. However, most of the time Oink's point B will be valid since our FE will generally not be high enough to overcome the dangers of having to call a 3bet.

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I think calling turn > raising turn > calling down. If I call turn I would fold the river UI. One reason for raising would be that he could fold a pair (I could see myself playing it this way if I was villain). If he won't fold a pair, I see less reason to raise.

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The only thing I wanted to point out is that calling down will be better than raising the turn for a free showdown. Assuming we have no FE on the turn I do not see how this cannot be true. Whether calling down is better than call-fold is another issue. To prove that a strategy is suboptimal, all you have to do is find a better strategy, not necessarily the best strategy. I think Oink did a good job on delineating how calling down is better than raising the turn and checking the river UI.

Assuming I called the turn, what would I do on a blank river UI? I think its close but I would probably call if all draws missed since most aggressive players will 3barrel in this spot. If a non draw filling King or Queen hit the river I may even consider raising the river against the right opponent assuming I believe I have a calling hand to begin with.