PFA question/checkup

[SeaEagle]

I haven't played seriously for about 6 months. A couple of weeks ago I remembered I had small amount of money (enough to play some 2/4) sitting at Pokerstars and so I figured I'd play it.

So I've played about 5000 hands and I've been very choppy, with a win rate of -.46BB/100. I was reviewing my PT stats last night and my PFA over those hands by street is 2.3/2.5/2.7. Historically my PFA has always went down by street, not up. Any ideas why kind of changes I have in my game for this to happen?

An additional data point: my Showdown win % is 47. Historically it's been around 52%. So it seems I'm being more aggressive with worse hands on the river.

[Ricks]

This could be because you have ramped up your aggression playing at a lower limit. The higher your aggression becomes the more variance you will usually have.

[James.]

i've never played on stars, but my guess is that you are very much an inferior player in comparison to the average opponent. maybe try the .25/.50 tables for a while.




just kidding.




i'm sure some of it deals with sample size. i'm not a statistician, but i would be fairly certain that's a reasonable assumption as to why your showdown numbers are down.

as for the PFA, are you waiting for the big streets to give action? at least moreso than you have in the past? have you increased your aggression in response to the increased aggression of the online games in general? you need to find your call button, and evaluate the times you should have used it. any hands stand out in particular? you don't need to post them in a separate thread if you don't want. just stick them in here if you think you played them differently than you would have 6 months or a year ago. for me, it's tough to really diagnose the reason as to why, but i will say i've heard of this very effect on an individuals PT stats after a layoff in play. i don't know why, but it happens sometimes.

my primary assumption is that you are trying to "out aggro" the overly-aggressive games and this has the result of increasing these postflop AF numbers. alot of bluff/semibluff raising occurs, especially on the turn, in the games today. if you generally counter these with aggression or folding, it's going to have the effect of influencing these stats, right?

[Bluffoon]

I have about 800 hands with you this month and your pfa is 2.5 1.8 3.2.

You are winning 82% of the time you bet the river so if anything that indicates to me that you should be betting the river more.


I have also noticed that you are not running so well.

[Bluffoon]

[ QUOTE ]
I have about 800 hands with you this month and your pfa is 2.5 1.8 3.2.

You are winning 82% of the time you bet the river so if anything that indicates to me that you should be betting the river more.


I have also noticed that you are not running so well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I went back and looked at your stats again. You are only getting to showdown 21% of the time. That's awfully low and suggests that you are folding too much. If I am playing in really tight games my went to sd goes down but won when see flop should shoot up. That's low for you too. All suggestive of running bad but you may be getting run over too, which also tends to happen when you run bad and doesnt help matters any.

Sometimes when you are running bad curling up in a little ball works but you can create a weaktight image. So try to work with that maybe? Hope I helped some [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[SeaEagle]

Thanks for the responses, guys. Bluffoon, I really appreciate you going out to PT and digging through my stats.

It makes a lot of intuitive sense that the game is more aggressive today and that I might be folding on the turn/river more often. If that were the case: my PFA on the later streets would be higher, my getting to SD would be low, and my win % when bet on the river would be high (the 82% you have would seem to be way to high. My actual number is 71$ and even that seems high). I think I'll make a point of just calling a few more turns/rivers.

As for my 'running bad', everybody who's losing money thinks it's because they're getting unlucky and everybody who's winning thinks it's because they're playing well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But, seriously, I'm not worried about the win rate yet; I just put that in for context. Besides I can't do anything to affect win rate directly. PFA, on the other hand is a major factor in play style and it looks to me like mine needs some adjusting.

Again, thanks for the replies.