Over-played AA?

[SeaEagle]

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If I understand you correctly, you're saying that we have about a 10-12% chance of being ahead on the river. We know villain doesn't have AK. But you stil think we should bet.

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So we agree villian is never bluff-raising, essentially never bluffing if it's checked to him, and that we're ahead 10-12%. That's a good start.

Are there any hands we beat that villian would call with that he won't bet?

Are there any hands that beat us that villian would check behind with that he won't bet?

And just to be sure, because I missed this, why are we sure villian doesn't have AK (or the other AA)?

[jeffnc]

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And just to be sure, because I missed this, why are we sure villian doesn't have AK (or the other AA)?

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Ugh. I'm sorry guys, I just went back to the original post to double check, and somewhere during this discussion I've lost track of what order the cards came. I thought there was a K on the river, not on the flop. Now I don't know what I'm saying since I went off course somewhere.....

[jeffnc]

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The river is a J not a K. I'm not sure if this matters in your analysis or not because I honestly don't see what you're getting at here.

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It does. I'm sorry, I got goofed up on this hand somewhere along the line.