2008 Presidential Primaries

[Moneyline]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Some interesting developments concerning our evangelical friends. Link Not sure if this has been posted yet anywhere. If so, my apologies.

Go Giuliani!

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't get too fired up about this. Support for 3rd party candidates who don't have obscene amounts of money tends to drop drastically as the election nears.

So small that it wouldn't be enough to make it worth voting for or against Giuliani on that issue alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

The initial concern from the GOP side is that if Obama doesn't come out well in the $$ race given the tight almost corination aspect of the primaries timeline, he would have to pull at least one convincing win out of the first 3 northern states as SC should be a lock for him. Any thing else and it is hello Mr. First Lady(molester) Bill Clinton.

Given the politics on the GOP side, and any air of inevibility to Hillary or a good 2nd on the ticket and the GOP will need every single vote it can get to defeat the DEM's in 2008. Even a small loss of key votes or support could doom any chance of a Pres. race early and possibly make November a down ballot massacre.

I am heartend by Thompson firing the FoF fool. This and the timing of Dobson's trial ballon either means, Wichterman is bucking for a campaign manager job or Thompson was saying go ahead we don't need or want a fringe group like the FoF. IMPO its a little to early to tell. If I had an inside peek at his quarterly $$ numbers I'd be willing to take a side.


D$D

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that I understand your point, but I disagree with (what I think) are the conclusions you're drawing. Specifically, the visceral hatred many Republicans feel toward Hillary Clinton makes it IMO far less likely that reactionary Christians will support a 3rd party candidate. In fact, even if a less polarizing figure was to be nominated by the Democrats, I think history shows that support will wane significantly for a non-billionaire 3rd party candidate as the general election nears. Due to this IMO inevitable effect, I don't think it makes it worth either supporting or opposing Giuliani on this basis alone. In terms of "electability" I think there are much more important factors.

[Legislurker]

I think we're overlooking the wild card. A radical change in Iraq. A big suicide bomb, or even some kind of political rapprochment could change the dynamics. Iraq going well means McCain might make a comeback. If it goes poorly, look for RIchardson to become a contender. Hillary's campaign is BANKING on the status quo. She has zero cred with the zealous anti-war crowd. If corpses pile up, she will fall in the polls. If it goes well, she may get the nomination to face a tougher Republican challenge. Thats her weakness.
Another may be Obama's appeal on Feb 5th. I think his support is underpolled and a lot more democratic. He needs money less than any top tier challenger as he is getting committed volunteers reminiscient of Bush 00. Cant overstress the importance of a cheap national staff. Romney is paying thru the nose(albeit rich one) for his organization. No other Republican is poised for a major national push. Edwards has some troops out there, but he has a horrible message.

Im thinking FoF knows the Armageddon is coming. The 3rd Party move may be a shrewd push. Keep your electorate voting and inspired. Bash queers, gambling, and science at the same time as collecting coffer clings. This is the sort of thing blacks or the unions should have done in the 80s if they wanted input in the Democratic Party. They could elect Hillary, humble the National Republican Party, and call the shots for 3-4 cycles. Or, we could get lucky and their candidate could be a child molester, and FoF disband. But, I think they will run a candidate as they have lawyers, signatures, and an organized media machine. And, I think it may boost their standing. Sad.

[DeadMoneyDad]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that I understand your point, but I disagree with (what I think) are the conclusions you're drawing. Specifically, the visceral hatred many Republicans feel toward Hillary Clinton makes it IMO far less likely that reactionary Christians will support a 3rd party candidate. In fact, even if a less polarizing figure was to be nominated by the Democrats, I think history shows that support will wane significantly for a non-billionaire 3rd party candidate as the general election nears. Due to this IMO inevitable effect, I don't think it makes it worth either supporting or opposing Giuliani on this basis alone. In terms of "electability" I think there are much more important factors.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I have no points, only opinions based on limited knowledge.

While the general concensus is Hillary on the top of the ticket against a well financed non-primary crippled GOP'er is a race. But Hillary scares the hell out of the GOP and the ticket combinations can possibly hit on a winner that include her IMO.

If you add in any type of additional ballot mess like any type of third part candidate then your race becomes something less than a coin flip. The GOP has been burned by Perot and was almost burned by Nader. A half decent showing in any singlke state and Liberman might be running for the top slot in '08.

Any 3rd party candidate with a 1/2 a$$ed Karl Rove if they wanted to knows they can swing the outcome if that was their goal.

I don't put it past Dobson to try to do exaclty that against a less than 100% FoF candidate, at least now from here, how long it might last is an open question. If he has any power ot thinks he does, he might try to mix up a couple of early primaries with a good few later showings in strategic states just to demand a seat at the convention back room table. Then if he doesn't get his full measure of his imagined worth, take his ball and go home or look for another game.

Personally I don't think Dobson can raise the money to be a factor, most of his messages are crap and his support's make most "on-line poker is RIGGED!" posters look complety reasonable by comparision.

I just said the GOP has a major fear of a 3rd party candidate messing up a tight race.


D$D

[Emperor]

Don't discount Dobson's power to raise money.

He has 30Million listeners over 2000 radio stations
He runs a giant media conglomerate that generates propaganda for their followers.

I used to listen to Dobson religiously until he started down the Anti-Poker path. However I still believe he could raise more money than God.

[DeadMoneyDad]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't discount Dobson's power to raise money.

He has 30Million listeners over 2000 radio stations
He runs a giant media conglomerate that generates propaganda for their followers.

I used to listen to Dobson religiously until he started down the Anti-Poker path. However I still believe he could raise more money than God.

[/ QUOTE ]


You and Legislurker might just be right, and the GOP may have a lot more to worry about than I thought. I know of dobson of course but have never really looked into him as a real political player.

The GOP's nightmare is Hillary, but from what I've seen, and again I'll know more 10/15 but my feel is Obama is the one who could win in most senarios. That is why IMO Thompson is in the race on the GOP side. He is they only thing on the GOP side apporaching rockstar status. He also has a few really sharp operators in his camp.....


D$D

[DeadMoneyDad]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't discount Dobson's power to raise money.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pre-full release PR battle is going on.

Ron Paul claims to have raised 5M and did it not spending a dime according to his PR "buzz."

Mit is writing a lot of personal checks.

Thompson claims almost 10M on 80,000 donors, not bad for less than a month of "offical" campainging. We'll have to see how many are capped.

Most of the rest were non-news.

Some 3rd Quarter PR pre-release spin wrap up.

On the Dem side.

Hillary made a another major push to act like the inevitible candidate by announcing $22M raised and a total of about $62M so far, but $10M she transfered from her Senate campaign coffers.

Obama's numbers if nothing else cropps up from the full report are really impressive, IMPO. $75M raised on 350,000 donnors?!? That's an average of $214.00 if my math is correct. In addition $4M for the general already?

"More than 350,000 Americans have already signaled the kind of change they want in Washington by contributing to the Obama campaign," spokesman Bill Burton said. "We have raised a historic $74.9 million in dollars available for primary spending, without transferring one cent from any other campaign fund and with no money from federal lobbyists or PACs."

Now that is a pre-release PR statement!



D$D

[Coy_Roy]

Obama whoring himself to the church :


Obama: GOP doesn't own faith and values

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...th-and-values/

[Coy_Roy]

[ QUOTE ]
He finished his brief remarks by saying, "We're going to keep on praising together. I am confident that we can create a Kingdom right here on Earth."

[/ QUOTE ]

[TheEngineer]

[ QUOTE ]
Obama whoring himself to the church :


Obama: GOP doesn't own faith and values

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...th-and-values/

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome! I think the Democrats have a real hope of peeling some Christians from the GOP. Hopefully that will help both parties in the long run.

Many mainline Protestants have long felt they have no home in the Democratic Party. They don't really align with the anger of folks like Dobson, but they've had nowhere else to go. As a result, Dobson has been able to hold the Republican Party hostage to a degree. In fact, I'm sure the establishment would kick Rudy out if they could. I'm sure they're chagrined by the fact that voters are making the decisions for them.

[TheEngineer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He finished his brief remarks by saying, "We're going to keep on praising together. I am confident that we can create a Kingdom right here on Earth."

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Obama's "kingdom" is one where he's helping the poor and things like that...not passing restrictive laws on people's behaviors.