What are you more likely to do? *Poll*

[DeathDonkey]

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Yes but I doubt he would cap even AT given stats. The crux of my argument was I can't see this guy not sticking in a raise on flop or turn given two flush draws on the turn and top pair with no face cards out. Plus Joe is a statistical LAG if the guy has any stats.

-DeathDonkey

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Here's my problem with the argument of everybody in the 3b camp:

If you think he always raises top pair on flop or turn, why do you think he would play 99 so differently? If JJ and Jts are virtually the same hand (and I disagree, but whatever), then how is 99 any different? And 77 picked up a gutshot on the turn, so I'd expect him to raise that hand there pretty damn often. So I honestly don't really get it--I'd 3b QQ sometimes too, but that would be against a 50/40 type who might raise/call KQ. Against a normal tag I don't see how this isn't just a cross-your-fingers call. I think you win a fair amount here only cuz I think he has a retarded blluff-raise a fair amount here.

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Well sure, that's true, I'd raise for value with 22 on this flop if I was in there somehow preflop but I doubt the villain in question would. So I guess the question is how does someone with stats like those perceive the value of his hand changing between the turn and river. It is my contention if he has a smaller pair than a ten (A6, 77, whatever) he is going to see the ten as a good card, and what was previously a tenuous situation for him ("I could beat by a ten or an overpair here") has now become somewhat better ("now a ten is not very likely") so he perceives his hand value has increased. Nobody here can say they generally are not happy to see the top card pair when they were worried about their opponent having top pair. It's certainly a welcome sight most times.

-DeathDonkey

[Raist0000]

I agree with Miles and his posts, and I think too that 3betting is very bad.

It's even worse if we look at his river AF < 1. I mean, I highly doubt that this opponent can make thin river value raises, and even if it's a thin value raise this time, he has to call your 3bet yet to have any value.

This is a ten a high percentage of the time.

[MitchL]

Nothing about villains line makes any sense which means I will never fold, but I would rather miss 1bb of value when I am ahead than lose 2bb extra when I am behind.

[timoK]

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...if we look at his river AF < 1. I mean, I highly doubt that this opponent can make thin river value raises...

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damn right.
If you guys make a decision based on these stats take into account that a nitty guy like this dont make thin value bets on the river. he is either way ahead or trying to pull a desperate bluff against a regular who he thinks might fold.

on the other hand:
why is nobody talking about a flush draw?
I saw many passive players like villain who raise their (rather lowish) flush on the river.
people do this because:
- they are passive and afraidof higher flush and much heat (on the turn)
-> therefor raising (any) river makes them get another bet in without much fear of more heat

(I votet for call in vote 1 but I dont know about vote 2. I guess I would use the 3 bet line but I wont say it's the better line)

[timoK]

btw:

WTSD: 43.5%
W$SD: 55.25%

is this for real? looks to me like somebody is on an insane heater (at stars low limit nobody has stats like this!!!)

[Spy Dog]

Check-calling this river should be getting more love. I'd say most every hand that calls a river bet will bet the river when you check. So, you lose a small amount of value if he wusses out with a hand like 88. But I think you gain that back by not paying 2 bets with Tx, which is strongly in his range. Throw in the chance that he bluffs with one of the 2 possible broken flush draws and check-calling could be the best play. And if check-calling is the right play then checkraising and folding to a 3-bet might be even better.

[jstill]

fwiw my stats are pretty close to villains and id pretty much always have a T here

in most of the games ive played online 3betting wouldnt really cross my mind, and neither would folding though Im wondering if anyone does fold here, im guessing not with this many missed draws out.... gehrig, what you think? what board could we bet fold on with the T pairing and how much does where he opened from come into play in the decision?

I guess the question is versus a regular or decent player (not always the same thing) are you betting AK or AQ suited here or whats your river line? and depending on your answer to that, what hands should he raise on the river (and is he likely to play this way, ignore that for now I guess)? Id love to hear peoples answers to these questions

fwiw Oink this WA WB line is way more likely in position, and Im surprised u think its uncommon, like Miles said in similar threads tons of people on this site would advocate not raising the flop or turn with a T here

and to spy dog, I think ck call loses too much value to A hi that will not be when u ck, worse PPs probably bet alot here trying to get value from AK and hands like QJ or random missed flush draws are a bit less likely becuz he was UTG and wont always bluff when u ck like ud like since he probably expects u not to ck fold A hi here. If hes mouth breather yeah his range will be wider and he mite insta bluff when u ck without showdown value without thinking but he also might be dumb enough to ck a PP when u ck here so its a double edged sword as he gets worse kinda

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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fwiw Oink this WA WB line is way more likely in position, and Im surprised u think its uncommon, like Miles said in similar threads tons of people on this site would advocate not raising the flop or turn with a T here


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Oink asserting that Tx is uncommon here is a classic example of someone who just makes up facts out of nowhere to support their viewpoint. If Oink was honest with himself there is no way he would believe what he's saying. Miles basically caught him in the act and I'm just here giving the recap.