(60) pot odds d with A5

[schwza]

utg has aggro pf stats.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t600 with t50 antes (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1780)
UTG+1 (t595)
CO (t1065)
Button (t1550)
Hero (t3315)
BB (t5195)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG raises to t1730 (All-in)</font>, UTG+1 calls t545 (All-in), <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, hero?

Flop: (t4605) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)


Turn: (t4605) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)


River: (t4605) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)

[bigballz]

I'd probobly let the BB worry about PO's, and keep my healthy stack till a few of the shorties bust out with blinds this high.

[b33nz]

i think this is actually a huge +EV call. lets run through some numbers:

pot is 3475 and you need to call 1430. youre getting 2.43 to 1 odds.

if you call and lose to UTG, you will have 1835 left... this is actually not that bad considering you will be button next hand and still be 3rd in chips 5 handed while the shorties (CO and BTN) going first to put the blinds in next round.

if you call and lose to UTG+1 (but beat UTG), you will end up with 2425. you will also be virtually tied for 2nd in chips with 5 remaining if this happens. and like last time... you will be BTN next hand, thus letting everyone put blinds in first before you do for the next round.

ok so now we have to put these guys on ranges... well thats not very hard. if UTG has agressive PF stats, then he obviously is pushing at least 35% here... maybe even 100% if he feels like he doesnt want to end up with 2BB next hand. and i estimate UTG+1s calling range no less than 25%-45%.

if you scoop the whole pot... you basically are guaranteed a 2nd place. you will be able to push BBs blind every time and he will fold almost every hand because of the short stacks.

call and dont be surprised to be ahead of both of these guys at least 20% of the time. and even if you lose to UTG, you still have a decent chance to get ITM.

[schwza]

but it's a disaster if bb plays. also, you talk about how i'm in good shape if i win and ok shape if i lose, but i'm still in pretty good shape if i just fold. also, i think i'm decently behind the shorty's range.

[b33nz]

BBs range would have to be quite tight to call 3 all ins. (im assuming you would be re-pushing this if you just decide to "call")

[ QUOTE ]
but i'm still in pretty good shape if i just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this type of thinking is a leak. if you had AA in this situation... you can make the same arguement that if you fold you will still be in pretty good shape.... and it would be true, too.

[pooh74]

I thought you were BB when I first saw it and thought it was a no brainer of a call...as SB I think I let it go with the stack you have....

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

i think this type of thinking is a leak. if you had AA in this situation... you can make the same arguement that if you fold you will still be in pretty good shape.... and it would be true, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, those are very similar situations you're comparing!

[Grumpy1]

I feel your correct on the pot odds however I do think the gap comcept still applies. If I'm understand correctly (please correct me if I'm wrong. the blinds are 300/600 with 50 dollar antes, 6 players left so 1050 to play. bot of whick M are low. If you loose they are taking a big pot your corrected M has been lowered to about les than 1.5 Now your making be all in moves and attempting to get lucky and pick up a hand. I would probably fold here. Pick my battles later YOur still in good position.

[suzzer99]

I think you have to let this go.