Passive line okay vs this villian OOP with AA

mackthefork · #1 10-06-2007, 09:17 PM

50NL 6 Max

Villian is 24/19 with postflop aggression numbers of 10.5/4.4/2.1 over 860 hands.

The flop sort of makes sense because he likely folds a lot of hands that he would bet with if I make a C-Bet, I think I can get away with it because I check sometimes with nothing too.

On the turn 75s got there but I'm not sure a good player would bet a gutshot draw on the flop, maybe he would, definitely bets if he has 54c or 75c, but I doubt he calls with 75c preflop, so I'm still thinking maybe AQ/KQ is his most likely holding when he keeps betting, but he's going to fold it if I push.

I don't think I like the river call because after he's bet and I've called the turn he must know I don't have a 5, and he probably knows that I know it's very unlikely for him to have a 5, also by now he should know that I'm liable to C-bet draws so he probably doesn't put me on any kind of a draw, so it has to be AQ/KQ or KK AA, which means that when he bets he's not expecting me to fold, which means I probably should. I think bearing the above in mind he probably checks behind with a missed club draw.

Anyway what you guys think.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button ($50.90)
SB ($78.10)
BB ($57.70)
UTG ($55.75)
Hero ($48.50)
CO ($77.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $2, 3 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($10.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8, Hero calls $8.

River: ($26.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $20, Hero calls $20.

Final Pot: $66.75

Regards Mack