78 Suited: Bet or take freebie

[Frond]

4/8 Live game. LP Table, No reads

Bunch of limps to Hero in HJ with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] who limps, few more. 8 to the flop

(7 SBs) Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] One EP bettor, 2 more call, Hero Raises, 2 Cold Callers, others call as well. 5 to the turn

(8.5 BBs) Turn is the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Checked to Hero who checks, rest check as well. 5 ways

River comes the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] EP bettor, we all fold.

Anyone bet this turn with this many outs or just take the freebie? Was thinking afterwards that with this many decent outs in what is shaping up to be a 10 BB pot that I could or should have bet here. Any Tens except the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are???

[JJH3984]

I think you can bet for value here.

[Fluffy_Shark]

Bet turn for value. You'll have more than enough callers.

-Fluffy_Shark

[Man of Means]

grunch
preflop, flop good

you could argue that 5-ways, if everyone called you are squeezing value out of your possible 15 outer. But obviously some of those outs are for a chop and some are not to the nuts (higher FD and KJ are possible).

Plus not everyone is going to call your turn bet

And then by checking you get the nice benefit of being able to raise the river if someone bets and your draw comes in.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can bet for value here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need 3 of the 5 to call and your rarely getting check/raised. I think its close.

OP,

I don't understand why the size of the pot matters here. Its really just a question of turn equity.

[gobbledygeek]

* grunch *

I count 6 to the turn with two coldcallers, is that correct?

You have 15 outs to flush/straight so that's like around 30% pot equity, you'd need 3 other callers to make this a slightly profitable turn bet. But I think I just check for two reasons. One, I doubt you are going to bet out a better hand and buy an 8 or 7 out. Second, with all the coldcalling I think it might be possible that someone else is on a flush draw so I think you have to discount your outs a bit. I check and fold river unless I hit the flush/straight.

[Frond]

The size of the pot always matters. It is one of the most important things to ever consider in the game is it not?

[Hyperrrprank]

I think betting out is probably marginally profitable. You have enough of an equity edge to bet and hope for a couple callers if all your outs are good. The coldcallers in the hand are your only worry, you have to discount your outs (and equity) a bit based on a possibility there is a bigger flush or straight draw out there. Without the coldcallers, this is a bet every time. With them, I still think it is best to bet out, but I don't see a huge issue in taking the free card.

[Clinger]

[ QUOTE ]
The size of the pot always matters. It is one of the most important things to ever consider in the game is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not when you're looking at the money that will go in if you bet. Your draw will win roughly 30% of the time whether one person calls or all four. So you should bet if you expect to be putting in less than ~30% of the money that will go in on the turn, i.e., you expect an average of at least 2 callers.

If you figure to win more than your fair share of the time, you profit from each bet that goes into the pot.

The pot size matters when deciding between a call vs. a fold, not a bet or raise vs. a check or call.

[mntndrew]

I agree with Sean that the size of the pot doesn't matter in deciding whether or not to bet on this street. We're trying to decide if we have enough equity to make a bet profitable *on this street*.

Let's say our equity against our opponents' ranges is fixed at 30%. If you have to pay 3 BB's to win, say, 16.5 BB (8.5 + 2 people playing for 3 BB + 2 more BB on the river), then your turn play has been +EV. However, on this street, you put in 1/3 of the bets owning less than 1/3 of the pot. The +EV comes from the padding of the pot by the loose flop and preflop callers, but you actually lost money on this street. I like to think of this kind of play as spending the positive expectation that I made on an earlier street; it's fine, but if you can take a free card it's usually worth it.

That said, I think, as has already been said, that a bet here is close. You're unlikely to be c/r'ed, and 3 callers is probably enough to make it close to profitable. At the same time though, you have to worry that if you get that many callers, your outs may not be clean. I check behind.