TPTK facing turn raise in big pot!

B_ing · #1 10-23-2007, 03:15 AM

BB just arrived at the table and is unknown,
CO is 28/5.4/0.6 (calling station)

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.
After BB 3-bets I put him on TT++, AK and maybe AQs
could someone explain how I assign probabilities to each hand?

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (16.4SB, 5 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.
Since there was no way to protect my hand I started raising for value (and praying). When BB did not reraise I put him on a FD or at least a pair.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (12.2BB, 4 players)
BB bets, MP1 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, BB calls, CO calls.
No scare card. I raised again to make the draws pay for seeing the river.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (18.2BB, 3 players)
BB bets, CO raises, Hero calls, BB calls.
A passive player raising, I suspected I was beaten now, but losing such big pot to a possible bluff could set me on tilt, therefor I called. I although thought the chance CO is bluffing might be big enough to make a call profitable.

Results:
Final pot: 24.2BB

Comments on any street please!

BadBigBabar · #2 10-23-2007, 03:20 AM

cap pf
don't raise turn
river is a really easy fold

B_ing · #3 10-23-2007, 03:33 AM

please explain why turn raise is bad? Is switching to calldown mode the right play here with TPTK.

You dont think there is a 10% chance co is bluffing the river?

Sushiglutton · #4 10-23-2007, 09:12 AM

Pf cap. There are 3 players who certainly have worse hands than u do and since you ar only a slight dog to BB we should cap for value. Also we have position and may be able to take a FC on the flop if we wish.

As played flop is fine. On the turn I'm getting a bit confused of BB range. Would he play AA, or KK like this? Maybe he is getting scared of the SD possibilities and decided a CR is too dangerous. He could also hold 99.

Question is if we still beat his range. I doubt that and just call. With a better read a raise may be good. Actually my Laggy trigger finger is itching some and wants to raise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

I fold the river. Remember we have to beat both BB AND CO. Look at the range you gave BB pf (I think it's a bit narrow but ok). How does ur hand compare to that range on the river? Combine that with the fact that a calling station just raised a very scary river card vs two opps. I think we are good like 1% an fold.

KaatzMeow · #5 10-23-2007, 09:48 AM

I would cap PF and expand BB range to include Broadway & Broadway suited connectors.

I would be reluctant to raise the flop with 5 players still in although we probably have the best hand but there are a ton of draws out there. I would not put BB on a draw, KT would be well within his range. All draws have the odds to call.

I would consider the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] a scare card since it completes/complements the SD giving Q & J a gutshot try and the odds to draw to it.

I also think the River is a fold with 2 pair or straight highly possible with CO waking up and BB still there.

Fadook · #6 10-23-2007, 10:05 AM

Easy river fold. BB is quite possibly FOS, but when CO raises, you're screwed. It's not like he has to have the straight to beat you.

LateFlag · #7 10-23-2007, 10:06 AM

Easiest river fold ever.

sean c · #8 10-23-2007, 10:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
please explain why turn raise is bad? Is switching to calldown mode the right play here with TPTK.

You dont think there is a 10% chance co is bluffing the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

CO is a passive calling station raising a one card to a straight river in a protected pot after huge action on the flop and turn. You aren't closing the action if anyone else has a straight it may cost you as many as 4 bets to show this down. You aren't good here 1% of the time. Calling the river is almost a full two bet mistake.

With the overlay of drawing hands and a decent possibility you are still ahead plus your position I think the turn raise is fine. If 3-bet I throw up a little.

Bulletproof Monk · #9 10-23-2007, 10:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
cap pf
don't raise turn
river is a really easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]

scpi10 · #10 10-23-2007, 11:02 AM

Isn't hero's position vs. BB important here. Capping the flop is good but if we cap and lead BB can c/r hero and blow away the other players. Calling the 3 bet and raiseing the flop we trap all the other players.
Is this just more FPS by me?