KK .10./.20 PS--fold river when best result is a chop?

MoonOrb · #1 10-23-2007, 07:15 PM

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

I had just gotten to table and villain is an unknown. I'm not thrilled when I bet the drawy flop and he calls. When the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] shows up on the turn, my thinking is that I'm much more likely to be called or raised with something that's beating me instead of something I'm still ahead of. But I call with ten outs.

But on the river, at best I'm chopping, so I'm getting only 6.75:2 on a call. I can make this call profitably if 1 out of 4 times he doesn't have a diamond and he's bluffing given my obvious fear of the board.

My question--in the absence of any info on villain, is there any reason to think that he's bluffing here at least 1 out of 4 times? When he calls with 3 diamonds on the flop, I think I'm screwed there. But I'm half expecting to be raised if he's holding the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Also, is there any merit to betting the turn hoping to bluff a low diamond? I didn't think so, because I can't imagine what he'd be holding if one of his cards is a diamond that he'd be willing to fold here. Maybe 8-7 or something. I don't think he folds the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. With the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the turn, that's one less [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for him to fear if he's not holding the A.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero?

Eeegah · #2 10-23-2007, 07:32 PM

gotta gotta bet the turn, if he raises call and the river plays itself

I dont see much point in betting the river. No diamond is never folding here, especially at .1/.2. As played I'd probably call the river bet though even with any 2 you're beat two times out of three.

I also haven't played serious poker in over a year so I don't know why the [censored] I'm giving advice.

edit: wait a minute we're chopping aren't we yeah c/f here

ckj · #3 10-23-2007, 07:53 PM

Lead turn please. River is a c/f.

sean c · #4 10-23-2007, 09:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
River is a c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't fold a set for one bet.

[censored] five diamonds never mind.

Point Blank · #5 10-23-2007, 10:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Lead turn please. River is a c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think that plan is too hot ... it's not like you can bet fold here - and putting in more than 1BB seems like too much

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River is a c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't fold a set for one bet.

[censored] five diamonds never mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sean, you should be including the turn bet as well ...

as said putting in more than 1BB is too much in this spot

after check-calling the turn it should look like you are going to showdown cheap - so, it becomes a little less likely that villain would be betting the river with a hand you beat ... IMO

Xylocain · #6 10-24-2007, 01:45 AM

:g:

Bet turn, yo.

scpi10 · #7 10-24-2007, 02:23 AM

grunch

Betting the turn isn't going to get any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to fold, they wouldn't have called the flop if they were going to fold when they make there flush.
On the river hero c/f.

MoonOrb · #8 10-24-2007, 05:00 AM

For everyone who wants to bet the turn, can someone help me out a little bit and explain why?

This is how I see it: When the fourth diamond hits, if villain doesn't hold a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he folds. So a bet here has close to zero +EV (allowing for the very small % of people who call down with a worse hand than mine). Since I'm therefore not betting the turn for value, the only reason to bet is to make a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] fold.

I don't think many [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s fold here. If any do, it's the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], or 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 7 and higher are all calling, I think, especially with the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] coming out and taking away one of the higher [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s vill's got to worry about.

But then the problem is that these low diamonds don't fit any likely holdings that would have called 2 cold preflop and then called the flop bet.

That's why I don't think a turn bet works. It's not a bet for value since it's not going to be called by second best hands and it's not going to get a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to fold, since none of the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s that make any sense for vill's range are low enough to fold here.

I want to get to the river since I have ten outs with the FH, so I still think c/c is the best line for the turn.

On the river, I now think c/f is the best line. There's (I think) a slightly less than 40% chance that the villain is holding at least one [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] just based on possible starting card distributions. Given that he called a flop bet, I think it's even more likely. But if I need him to be bluffing one time out of four to make the call correct, then with the info I now have, c/f is the best line here.

Smurph64 · #9 10-24-2007, 03:58 PM

you bet the turn for two reasons: one he may not have a diamond and two you just got ten outs so you can bet it and if he raises you call and the river plays itself.

MoonOrb · #10 10-24-2007, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
one he may not have a diamond

[/ QUOTE ]

Then what is the EV of my bet? My assumption here is that any non-diamond hand folds at this point. What non-diamond hand calls here?