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  #1  
Old 10-30-2007, 04:36 AM
Leader Leader is offline
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Default Bad bad turn

UTG is a super fish
UTG+1 is 50/20 and likes to donk very weak hands in big pots
BT is a very solid LAGTAG

Limit: $15/$30
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10.67SB, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8.33BB, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero...

Am I wrong to think I'm endlessly screwed here?
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  #2  
Old 10-30-2007, 04:57 AM
Flintoff Flintoff is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

I very much think you are indeed screwed here...
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  #3  
Old 10-30-2007, 07:45 AM
hoppscot22 hoppscot22 is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

[ QUOTE ]
I very much think you are indeed screwed here...

[/ QUOTE ]...but you should still bet
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  #4  
Old 10-30-2007, 01:29 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

I would check the turn. With the board pairing it has become almost impossible for them to draw out on you. So even though the pot is big you don't need to worry much about protecting it. It's just a question of whether you are getting good odds to bet.

You have to wonder why a "very solid LAGTAG" has coldcalled twice in a row. I can think of three reasons:

1. He coldcalled with a pocket pair and is now slowplaying 66/22. This is a perfect fit for his play

2. He coldcalled with two big (suited) cards and flopped top pair. This is a good fit for his play.

3. He coldcalled with a pocket pair and flopped an underpair. I don't actually have any idea why he called the flop. Exactly how sound is he?

Note the difference here. QJs has five outs and doesn't need too much protection when it is the best hand. It makes sense to just call the flop and see what develops. 88 is a deathtrap that should probably just be folded in a five-handed pot, but if I chose to play on I would 3-bet to drive out as many players as I could. Having thus overplayed my hand it would be easy to fold my 2-outer when people played back at me.

Back to Hero's problem. Checking is a 2-way shot:

1. Button probably has you beaten and checking avoids a raise.

2. If Button does have 88 or something then he is likely to be perceptive enough to take the free card. This saves two bets when UTG+1 has the queen.

Even in the worst case scenario where you give a free card with the best hand maybe it will come back on the river. You've made it a lot easier for someone to payoff with something like 33. Or UTG+1 could be induced to repeat a bluff.
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  #5  
Old 10-30-2007, 01:59 PM
Heisenb3rg Heisenb3rg is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

Definitly dont bet...
Im indifferent between a check/fold or a check/call then check/fold the river...

Its likely UTG +1 will call the turn bet if button bets... If you call and button has 88 or whatever, its EXTREMLY unlikely he'll bet his hand into 2 opponenets on the river as a bluff.

We know for sure his hand has decent showdown value and it looks like your showing down (or making a bad play with AK)..

However, does he even have a pocket pair &lt; Q enough for the turn call to be profitable?

I could certaintly see some players calling two cold with a pocket pair, bceause they know you know UTG+1 is a donk, so you may be raising the flop with with AK...

Others will fold..

His preflop range likely includes some suited broadway queens and pairs &lt; T... Hard to give a real estimate how much of those he folds on the flop without knowing the player.

I would probabily call the turn, fold the river...

Fwiw you actually have 4 outs against 22/66
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  #6  
Old 10-30-2007, 06:31 PM
Leader Leader is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

Yeah, thanks guys. This is pretty much what I figured out at the table, but I figured I'd better have someone else take a look. I checked the turn. On my good days, I probably fold this right there, but in this case I called down. Results in white: <font color="white">I overcall twice. River blanks. BT has 22. I have UTG+1 beat, but I don't remember what he had.</font>
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  #7  
Old 10-31-2007, 12:36 AM
ILOVEPOKER929 ILOVEPOKER929 is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, thanks guys. This is pretty much what I figured out at the table, but I figured I'd better have someone else take a look. I checked the turn. On my good days, I probably fold this right there, but in this case I called down. Results in white: <font color="white">I overcall twice. River blanks. BT has 22. I have UTG+1 beat, but I don't remember what he had.</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that against certain players we could check/fold the turn or not overcall on the river. However I dont think you have enough information about the BTN yet to make either of these plays. So I liked the way you played this hand every street.
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  #8  
Old 10-31-2007, 01:39 AM
Leader Leader is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

[ QUOTE ]
However I dont think you have enough information about the BTN yet to make either of these plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

What info would you be looking for in particular?
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  #9  
Old 10-31-2007, 11:46 AM
danzasmack danzasmack is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

"Am I wrong to think I'm endlessly screwed here?"

Yeah you're wrong imo

If he c/r's a blank river then you lose. Other times you win.
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  #10  
Old 10-31-2007, 01:19 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: Bad bad turn

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, thanks guys. This is pretty much what I figured out at the table, but I figured I'd better have someone else take a look. I checked the turn. On my good days, I probably fold this right there, but in this case I called down.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's hard to believe that folding the turn is correct.

First you have two outs and sometimes four. On the actual hand your four outs make it slightly +EV to call.

Second when you have the best hand you have a good chance of getting a free showdown because the button has the initiative and he isn't likely to bet the river with a showable hand like 88.

The combined equity from outs and free showdowns makes this a really easy turn call.

Should you call the river? That's a harder question but I wouldn't focus on UTG+1 very much. The chance that he can beat AA after playing the hand this way is small. I'm more inclined to see his river call as dead money rather than an "overcall" issue.
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