Washington @ Milwaukee 5/7

[tippy]

Play: Milwaukee -1 1/2 (-120) 5dimes

Chico @ Capuano. Normally I don't play too many run lines but this one sets up pretty nicely. Chico is terrible and probably won't make it 5 innings. He has started 6 games this year and only survived 27 innings. In those 27 innings he has given up 37 hits with an ERA of 6.59. 20BB and 17 K's. The Washington pen isn't that great either, so if he gets pounded early, this one could get way out of hand.

The Milwaukee offense is one of the highest scoring offenses in the NL and leads the league in HR.

Capuana goes against the leagues worst offense. He has gone 31 innings this year and only given up 24 hits. His BB/K ration is 13/22. ERA of 2.90. The pen is pretty solid all the way through, especially Turnbow and Cordero at the back. I don't see the Nationals scoring more than 3, maybe 4.

Given that the Milwaukee offense should put at least 5 on the board, it looks encouraging that they can cover the run line, especially if Capuano is on.

Good luck.

[thing85]

FWIW, isn't Capuano coming back from a mild "day-to-day" injury?

[dankhank]

you fail to mention that capuano only pitched three innings last outing due to an injury, and that the brewers are a big surprise with the best record in MLB and probably have some non-usual betting enthusiasm behind them

[tippy]

[ QUOTE ]
you fail to mention that capuano only pitched three innings last outing due to an injury, and that the brewers are a big surprise with the best record in MLB and probably have some non-usual betting enthusiasm behind them

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, he got hit in the leg with a line drive. Leg injuries I can deal with, arm/shoulder/elbow injuries would be a different story altogether. No biggie. I could probably go out there in a leg cast and one arm in a sling and still hold the Nationals to 3. As for the public betting, yeah, I agree, but the 115 compensation on the run line is too much. It should be 80-90 at the most. This takes care of the surplus moneyline from the public.

[brendanb438]

You guys failed to mention that the Brew Crew's Coaching staff was being extra careful when they pulled Capuano out last game from being hit from the line drive. Also you fail to mention that Capuano said he was more than able to continue pitching in that game but the management again didn't want to take a chance and also that he says he is 100% and that he didn't receive any injury.


Thing no day-to-day anything. Never came close to the DL or anything like that. The Brew Crew and Cinshiatnati Reds have been the 2 teams I have banked the most with so far this year.

Brew Crew RLs have been money. Capuano is 100% for tonight.

-Brendan

[thing85]

FWIW, the only reason I brought that up was because he's on my fantasy team. According to a note on there:

[ QUOTE ]
May 2 The Brewers are listing Capuano as "day-to-day" with a right calf contusion, the Racine Journal-Times reports.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since "day-to-day" really isn't even an official thing anyway, we're probably both right.

[New001]

I'm on the other side here. Unfortunately, I hopped on at +204 and it's moved against me. Chico isn't as bad as he's been, and Capuano is good but still not as good as he's been. This doesn't even take into account the "injury" to Capuano. I like the Brewers a lot this year but I don't think they should be -230 here at all.

[brendanb438]

New001 I agree that there is zero value in the Brew Crew ML. The value is in the Wash ML. But I do love the -1 RL and -1.5 RLs for the Brew Crew tonight. -1 is about -170 while the -1.5 is around -106 or so.

-Brendan

[tippy]

Milwaukee 3 Washington 0. Not the way I thought it would go, but still a win. That Washington offense is horrible, but Chico actually looked pretty good.