Time for some baseball!!!

[Ken_AA]

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Where can you do this on donbest? I play poker with a guy who has bet all the dogs in April the past 4 years and has said he has won every year.

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Aren't most games in April regular season games? No way blindly betting dogs or fav's in regular season is +EV.

Ken

[volkin]

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You can find historical odds and outcomes at Donbest. I just went through the 2005 and 2006 seasons of data looking at all games with dogs at +100 or greater. Betting one unit on the dog in each game would have lost you 12 units after betting 504 games. My numbers could be off by a bit as I put the data in by hand but I doubt this bet is +ev.

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Where can you do this on donbest? I play poker with a guy who has bet all the dogs in April the past 4 years and has said he has won every year. Could you please tell me how to do this or do the research and let us know how you would have done if you bet every dog on the board for April the last 4 years?

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You can find the historical records by clicking on free odds, left hand side half way down home page, then clicking on the archives section. Then click on the sport of your choice for its archives. I looked at every day in March for both years and input into excel the # of units won if the dog won, 2.2 for a line of +120 for example, and input a 0 if the dog lost. I then summed the column which gave a total units won of 491.8 over 504 games so this bet would of lost money.

I'm not sure about the rules here. Would I be out of line if I were to post a link directly to the archives?

[onlinebeginner]

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[quote
Where can you do this on donbest? I play poker with a guy who has bet all the dogs in April the past 4 years and has said he has won every year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't most games in April regular season games? No way blindly betting dogs or fav's in regular season is +EV.

Ken

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i could see that as being slightly +ev (betting the dogs) teams are still starting to form, pitchers aren't usually totally ready yet making the games a little more of a crapshoot

however exhibition dogs seems like it would be much higher ev

[worm33]

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[quote
Where can you do this on donbest? I play poker with a guy who has bet all the dogs in April the past 4 years and has said he has won every year.

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Aren't most games in April regular season games? No way blindly betting dogs or fav's in regular season is +EV.

Ken

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Yes Regular season April games not exhibtion. This guy is pretty sharp and absolutely swears by it. So thats why I was wondering if someone could compile the data from Donbest and see how it would have done the last 3 or 4 years.