Hurricane Prop

[Bishop22]

Bodog: How many hurricanes will make landfall in the United States
(Puerto Rico doesn't count) before December 31st, 2006? ($100 max risk)
1 15/1
2 14/1
3 9/1
4 3/2
5 7/1
6 6/1
7 11/2
8 6/1
9 5/1
10 11/2
11 10/1
12 or more 7/1

The last two years there have been 5 hurricanes per year making US landfall.
National Weather Service states that the most likely number of hurricanes making
US landfall in 2006 is 5, yet the line sits at 7-1.

Five hurricanes struck the United States in 2005.
In the 57 years since 1949, there have been just three other years when
five catastrophic hurricanes hit the United States—1985, 1999 and 2004. That may
seem like a bad thing but that is 3 times in the last 7 years with 5 storms and
the evidence supports an increase in activity from the late 90s.

The most number of hurricanes making US landfall since 1950 was 6 which
pretty much eliminates 8 and above, and several of those have been bet down.

It is possible that by dropping wood on this obviously lightly touched pool
I can pop up the 4 number so others can dutch the field against the big numbers.
There just seems like an infinite number of ways to get +ev out of this prop.
I am thinking of making a max bet on the 5 with a decent size bet on 3 and hedging
with the nice prices on the 1, 2 and maybe the 6.

Thoughts??