Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?

[Bond18]

Additionally,

I don't mean for my defense of the hand to sound like i think i played it well or it was some great idea/play.

I think the big issue in this hand isn't necessarily villains liklihood of having a J, but whether he folds two pairs/sets, and the fact that i'm not sure we're quite deep enough for it.

I probably wouldn't have thought of trying something along this line until i read this great article by Nath:

http://www.tworags.com/index.php?ACT...mp;USER_ID=203

Inevitably, when you try to work something new into your game, you may make technical/execution mistakes. I this this might have been one, but is still a good discussion hand.

[ASPoker8]

Lets assume he plays somewhat good

He has 25BBs and is UTG. What hands with a J is he raising? AJ, JJ.

Is he c/c'ing AJ on this flop? meh, maybe? JJ? possibly?


The only hand that makes sense for him is AdJd? And even that is really strange for him to c/c flop.

I don't hate the river shove tbh

[celticslegend]

oops, wrong thread

[ghostwriter]

[ QUOTE ]
Additionally,

I don't mean for my defense of the hand to sound like i think i played it well or it was some great idea/play.

I think the big issue in this hand isn't necessarily villains liklihood of having a J, but whether he folds two pairs/sets, and the fact that i'm not sure we're quite deep enough for it.

I probably wouldn't have thought of trying something along this line until i read this great article by Nath:

http://www.tworags.com/index.php?ACT...mp;USER_ID=203

Inevitably, when you try to work something new into your game, you may make technical/execution mistakes. I this this might have been one, but is still a good discussion hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What two pair hands is he likely to have, considering he raised utg and checked a K high flop? He bets KQ on the flop, no?

[mikeJ]

I think you might be underestimating the times villain shows up w/ JTs/QJs/KJs.

I think this is marginal @ best, since I'm not sure he value bets two pair/set that often.

I would fold.

[BarryLyndon]

Both of you played the hand like you have a J, except only one of you actually has it :-O.

Barry

[Thegunshow]

Bond,
Why don't you mention JTs in his range here? Maybe he was floating you OOP on the flop and he backdoored a hand here?

[jcm4ccc]

Absolutely the villain will fold 2 pair or a set sometimes, especially if he is a bad player. When he does fold a better hand, you gain 11200 chips over just calling. If he calls your push with a better hand, then you lose 5800 chips. So I think it is quite likely that this push is profitable.

Here are the 4 situations:

1. You push, he has a worse hand, he calls: Will almost never happen.

2 You push, he has a worse hand, he folds. You have the same number of chips as if you had just called.

3. You push, he has a better hand, he folds:
You've made a huge stride towards the final table. Your stack is workable, and you are no longer in push/fold territory.

4. You push, he has a better hand, he calls: You are basically gone, whereas if you had just called, Your M is less than 7.

#3 is your profit -- it's huge. Your M is over 18.
#4 is your loss -- you could have saved your 7M if you had just called.

Looks like a good push to me.

[NoahSD]

Tony,
As I said kind of incoherently last time, I think you got caught up in the fact that a J was unlikely and neglected to think about the fact that everything else is way less likely.

Every hand except QQ that he'd play this way was played oddly, and if he does choose to play KK/KQ or something like this, it's not clear he's folding them to a shove anyway.

[luckychewy]

shoving>calling but i'd fold. i agree with mike the guy has a jack more than u are giving him credit for.