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#1
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Re: Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your post! I thought that flush draw was more likely because he had pot it pre-flop and called my reraise. I thought he had something like A-J-T-9 or some high cards. Looking that turn bet now, it was obvious mistake. On turn nuts would be 7-8 and there are several other straight possibilities. I guess he wouldn't have called pot-size bet with bare flush draw. So smaller bet would be okay though it might look a bit wimpy. I don't like checking here because giving free cards in Omaha is absolute no-no. Well anyways, I think I would have been committed to this hand. For example if I had made 20 dollars raise on turn he would have simply pushed all-in. And it's EV+ play to call 34 dollars more in this spot because there is 100 bucks in the pot. [/ QUOTE ] 1) good logic about why he is more likely to have a flush. I had not thought of that, but makes sense. 2) it would not be ev+ to call on the turn if he shoved a str8 after you bet 20. as i mentioned, you have 23% equity (just realised you actually have 25% equity, used a holdem odds calc rather than an omaha one, oops), and you would not be getting 3:1, so calling would be -ev. you would not have pot odds to call (close but not quite). 3) if you were to check the turn, it would not be to give a free card, it would be to exploit his aggessive tendencies by check raising. obviously if you think he would take a free card do not do it. but once again, you are not checking to give a free card. FURTHERMORE we are not even sure we are ahead, so it is not exactly a simple case of giving a free card. |
#2
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Re: Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?
Yeah it's pretty close with EV+/EV-. Let's look at that again. Since villain has $68.19, that's our effective stacks.
On flop pot is 9 dollars, I pot it and villain calls. Now pot is 27 dollars and opponent has paid 13.50 dollars so far. In other words he has about 55 $ left. If I bet 20 dollars on turn I have to call 35 more. So the pot grows from 27 to 47 to 102. My pot odds are 102:35 and I my chances to improve are 4:1. By these numbers I am justified to call max 28 dollars bet. But since there is some kind of possibility that I am still leading it's pretty easy call. |
#3
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Re: Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it's pretty close with EV+/EV-. Let's look at that again. Since villain has $68.19, that's our effective stacks. On flop pot is 9 dollars, I pot it and villain calls. Now pot is 27 dollars and opponent has paid 13.50 dollars so far. In other words he has about 55 $ left. If I bet 20 dollars on turn I have to call 35 more. So the pot grows from 27 to 47 to 102. My pot odds are 102:35 and I my chances to improve are 4:1. By these numbers I am justified to call max 28 dollars bet. But since there is some kind of possibility that I am still leading it's pretty easy call. [/ QUOTE ] first of all your odds of improving are 3:1 (25%) :P second of all yes it might well be a call if they shove with random crap, but if you are going to call a shove anyway you might aswell pot it, so it seems a bit besides the point to discuss it. the whole reason i suggested betting less than pot was to allow you to get away from a str8 slightly cheaply. it was probably a pretty meritless suggestion, i was just going through the options. |
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