Continuation bet and turn )

[hihimichelle]

I'm seriously after some advice here. I'm having problems with this one. If you get into a HU situation, miss the flop with your hand and make a continuation bet - is it a good idea to fire again? usually i just give up on it, if i miss the turn aswell. I know its not an easy question, as it comes down to the player and board. Even so, alot of my continuation bets are being called down atm and its soo frustrating. I'm betting 3/4 pot and pot size most rounds.

i.e say i have A,Q and board is 4,8,9 and i'm out of position. I bet pot, he calls..would most of you bet again on the turn, if say a 3 came.. even a K and represent it? obviously, the pot is getting large and expensive -) Usually, i'd give them the benefit of doubt and put them on an overpair and fold. I think, i'm stuck in Dan Harrington school of thought - "if they call your continuation bet assume they have part of it". Well, i have 5k of hands on Pokertracker and a BB/100 of 14.03 at 10/20c(micro) which is reasonable. I'm just looking to improve and this is a major flaw in my game. Any thoughts? btw, maybe in position its easier.. they bet, you call..they check and you fire at it. As they've shown weakness. I need to overcome this fear, usually i'm thinking - this pot is getting large for these blinds and maybe i should play safe. Very negative i.e i raise 80, he calls $1.90 in pot.. i bet $1.50 you get to the turn and its $4.90 and i find it hard to fire $3 on another bluff. Well, i'm going to give this a test run lol. If i'm having problems now.. i best forget moving upto 25/50nl ahah.

Overall, i'm just looking for a balance between aggression and stupidity. It might be around the right level atm. Anyways Thanks for any help and advice.

[hihimichelle]

btw, i'm mostly wondering, because i just had two hands when i was on semi tilt which doesn't happen very often. I had TT and JJ in the space of ten hands. Both times the players tried to fire me off it on the turn - when an overcard card came a K and they could have made their hand. I was very close to folding and both times, their aggression, almost won them the hand. Well, i'd usually always fold in this situation, if i wasn't on tilt, i'd just put them on AK, KQ, QQ-AA maybe etc but maybe i'm being too passive and weak on the turn and river.

I knew they were aggression post flop, so i just went with it. That's what got me thinking though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]overall, i'd probably show a better EV if i was willing to be more aggressive on turn and river. Even if i do get 1.6 and 1.7 for turn/river aggression on PT which is around neutral. Myabe i should look for 2-3 ) ahh sorry just edited while i'm playing. laters.

[redlotus]

The age old "is he floating me" question. I've never really seen a good answer on this one, even though I'm sure that a lot of people run into this situation.

Normally, I'll fold in these situations, but I'm kind of a nit. So I'm not much help here. One thing you might try if you are OOP is to CR-AI on the turn. The few times I've tried it, the donk folds and doesn't bother trying to float me again. This is a risky move, though. You also have to be careful of the "flush bunnies." They may be calling you just because they have four to a flush, so I wouldn't recommend this move when there is three to a flush on the board at the turn.

You can also use their aggression to your advantage. If you actually hit the turn (or flop for that matter), just C/R OOP or 1/2PSB if IP (they usually see this as a sign of weakness and move in). Just remember to mix up your play by doing this some of the times when you hit and some of the times you miss.

HTH and I look forward to seeing other peoples' responses on this.

-red

[hihimichelle]

yeah red, i think this is the ultimate question of how good you are. How many times you can get in right out of one hundred say. Anyone can play tight, raise the right hands, play position, make continuation bets, know pot odds, push all in with monsters, slow play and defend made hands to draws/flushes,. What determines the poor/average players like myself and the good players is this type of flop play when u've missed. I remember watching William Thorsen in a tourney and i've never seen such a good flop player. He was just getting it right 90% of time, knew exactly where he was. Even calling some players down with Ahigh which was funny and getting it right.

Its very complex, even reading the player. His holding, how aggressive is he? can you take him off it, is he a calling station. Your getting into some serious probability and overall EV which is way beyond my pea size brain ahah. lol i've only been playing six months but i'd hoped it would have started to kick it. But is hasn't ahahh. This marginal jazz has got my head in a spin lol.

[tarheeljks]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...p;vc=1&nt=3

[hihimichelle]

K thanks alot red and tar. I'll give that thread a reading [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] marginal jazz.

[Nairb]

It depends on the player and the situation whether to fire a second, or even third bullet at the pot. If you put your opponent on a draw and he has shown the ability to lay down a hand after a significant investment then I will fire on the turn and the river if no card comes that completes the draw I have put him on. With no reads and my c-bet gets called by an unknown it is a bit trickier and a case by case decision.

It shows the importance of having somewhat of a read on your opponent. You can never bluff a calling station and most low level maniacs will chase a small flush or str8 unitil they go broke. Makes it kinda hard to fire that second and third bullett when your opponent does not have a solid grasp of the long term ev aspect of poker.

[PantsOnFire]

I will stick to deep stack situations. The short stack scenario is usually all-in or fold so that is too specific.

What I look for first of all, is what level my opponent is thinking on. I have to find out why he is calling my c-bet (or value bet for that matter).

Here are some reasons villain might call:

1. He is a calling station. This could mean two things. Either he has some piece of the flop and wants to see a turn card or he simply doesn't fold on the flop for any reason.

2. He simply doesn't believe you and thinks you are bluffing.

3. He has a great hand and might not be sure if you have a better one.

4. He is a good player (i.e. not a calling station) and has some sort of draw that might not be giving him the pot odds but he knows about implied odds.

5. He is a TAG and is testing you (this is the kind of guy that might raise you, especially if he has position).

6. He has position and will not give up his button easily (close to a calling station but for a different reason).

7. He is a good player and is floating to set up a steal on the turn.

So basically, you need to figure out if he is still in the hand because of himself and his cards or because of what he thinks about you and your cards. This relates the levels of thinking aspect of holdem. You should see that the above list of players includes players that think on different level. It's very important to know if the villlain is reacting to you or reacting to his own hand. And you may need to go through the cbet scenario several times before you can figure that out. It also might help tremendously if you can get to showdown cheaply and see what he was playing. As well, notice what villain is doing against other players when you are not in the hand.

Once you determine what level your opponent is thinking on, you can then employ your arsonel of weapons to counter that level of thinking.

In the meantime, here are some things in general to try out:

1. Bet 1/3 of the pot (maybe do this once an awhile with a very good hand as well).

2. Overbet the pot like 1 1/2 psb (usually for small pots).

3. When OOP, check and then bet the turn (try 1/2 pot to start with).

Edit: In my list of players above, note that the good players, i.e. the ones thinking about you will usually want to have position on you if they are going to mess with you. Also, you can tell which players are aware of position by their VPIP numbers in PT by position.

[sharpyetblunt]

if you cbet the flop then fold the turn all the time then you become very exploitable. I find people tend to make weak turn bets aswell, a strong pot sized bet scares them out a lot of the time. Also firing a 2nd time means when you do have a hand you can fire on all 3 streets and can get paid off.