25NL Boat with set on board VS river overbet

[RapidEvolution]

Villain is 40/0/2 over 40 hands
I've been playing 10/8/6 so far



$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$41.95</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$24.35</font>)
MP1 (<font color="#0000cc">$3.50</font>)
MP2 (<font color="#0000cc">$19.75</font>)
MP3 (<font color="#0000cc">$49.25</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$12.40</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$24.65</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$13.35</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$5.00</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 9 players) Hero is BTN Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, <font color="#777777">3 folds</font>, CO calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, BB checks

With 0-1 limpers I'm raising this preflop. With 3, I just limp behind and see if I flop 2pair or a straight.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.9</font>, <font color="#777777">SB folds</font>, <font color="#777777">BB folds</font>, UTG calls $0.9, <font color="#777777">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="#777777">CO folds</font>

It checks around to me, so I take a stab at the pot. It helps that my hand has some value, but I'm trying to do this with atc if people don't seem interested in pot. (lesson from bottomset video)

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($3.3, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $1</font>, Hero calls $1

UTG bets out at me, and I call. I put him on either an 8 or a PP, or perhaps a Q like mine.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($5.3, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $10.25</font>, Hero?

When he makes this massive river bet, I'm thrown off. I actually checked PT to see if he was at table when I made the 2xpot river bet with quads, but he wasn't. I thought at this point, his range was Q's, 8's, and (given his 0% PFR) possibly KK/AA. Do we find a call here, or is the price too high?

[PokahPokah]

essentially u can only beat a bluff or your chopping imo

[redlotus]

Flop: I would personally bet a litle less here. Maybe around 1/2 pot for an information raise. You're more likely to induce a raise if someone has a beter hand and I don't think your reducing the FE. Only problem with this is that you might be inducing a bluff, though.

Turn: You really, really have to raise this up to find out where you stand. Not a big fan of it, but even a min-raise is better than your flat call.

River: You're only getting 1.5 to 1 on your money, so you would have to be reasonably sure that villain bluffs about 60% in this spot. For most micro-donks, this is a monster hand--villain is trying to make up a lot of missed value on the river. I would not be surprised to see 99 here. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised to see AK here either, but that is beside the point.

Bottom line--you only have about $2.15 (~9 BBs) invested in the pot so far. I'm folding unless I've seen this guy show down air with a massive overbet on the river before. I've called these kind of overbets more than once and it has almost always been a monster.

-red

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: You really, really have to raise this up to find out where you stand.

[/ QUOTE ]
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...

Let's raise so that worse hands fold and same/better hands re-raise...

[redlotus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: You really, really have to raise this up to find out where you stand.

[/ QUOTE ]
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...

Let's raise so that worse hands fold and same/better hands re-raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. We should just give AK/99+ a free pass to draw to a bigger boat.

Now how about answering the OP's question rather than insulting me.

[SABR42]

I fold river.

Passive player taking this line has at least the same hand as you, but often stronger. Earlier streets are fine.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: You really, really have to raise this up to find out where you stand.

[/ QUOTE ]
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...

Let's raise so that worse hands fold and same/better hands re-raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. We should just give AK/99+ a free pass to draw to a bigger boat.

Now how about answering the OP's question rather than insulting me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Protecting against a 6-outer and a 2-outer in a small pot in a WA/WB situation, when no worse hands will call a raise. Hmm...

I don't mean to insult you but I'm not very fond of posters with less than 100 posts giving unsound advice.

[TheBad]

I don´t like it PF. If you raise, you might take the pot PF and if someone calls you will have a lot of fold equity when you cbet. Also, chances that your hand is good if you spike an Q or an T are increasing.

Rest seems fine, don´t forget to make a note.

[RapidEvolution]

If I'm going to raise 3 limpers PF, I'd like to have something more substantial than QT, or something that's completely crappy and has no other value than stealing the limps/blinds. , in case either of the blinds has a real hand (and reraises me) or someone was being cute with AA/KK (and reraises me). That way, I can fold my trash hand happily. I made a note on the guy and saw him again today. Got AI preflop with time, my AA vs his KK. K on flop. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[redlotus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You're right. We should just give AK/99+ a free pass to draw to a bigger boat.

Now how about answering the OP's question rather than insulting me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Protecting against a 6-outer and a 2-outer in a small pot in a WA/WB situation, when no worse hands will call a raise. Hmm...

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand what would be so horrible about taking down the pot right here. Yes, you may be losing some value by doing so, but how is this any worse than flat calling and then folding to a bluff, which you pretty much have to do in this situation.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mean to insult you but I'm not very fond of posters with less than 100 posts giving unsound advice.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you find that my advice is unsound, I certainly appreciate an explanation as to why it is unsound. I'm here, just like everyone else, to improve my game. Half (if not more) of the reason I posted was to get feedback on my own thought process. Criticize me up and down all you want, but please don't insult me just because I'm new here.

OP -- my apologies for the threadjack