local pub parlay cards

[ImStillBen]

10-teamers have the best expectation.

[MCS]

Under what assumptions? I get that 4-teamers are better if every game is a coin flip.

[ImStillBen]

Assume >53.6% probability.

[MCS]

I know what expectation is. My point is that you are wrong if every game is won with probability 0.5. Since OP makes it sound like he can do better than this, and since you generally know what you're talking about, I figured you assigned some other probability and answered based on that.

This is known by several names, including "exposition," "answering the question," and "not being a jackass."

Please tell me a condition under which 10-teamers have the highest expectation.

(edit: okay, you did)

[ImStillBen]

OK, you're right, if every game has p=.50, then your least bad option is a 4-teamer. It's also slightly better to buy a scratch-off ticket than to drop a dollar bill in a flask of sulfuric acid, but that doesn't mean either option is advisable. I always make the mistake of assuming you people are interested in advantage play.

[MCS]

Well, that condition obviously matters a lot, because that's what determines if OP should be playing this or not. So just saying "10-teamers have the highest expectation" doesn't really help all that much without elaboration.

I was interested in how good you had to be in order to make this +EV, and like you, I get that it's about 53.7%. 10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point.

So yeah, if you're able to win at all, you'll do best playing 10-teamers.

[twistedbeats]

so my next question is how much is the line being off worth? for instance, assuming that the line on the pats redskin game is correct at skins +16, how much is being able to bet them at +20 worth in ev?


also, yes, ties lose. and furthermore i am unfortunatly not able to bet these lines on a single game basis.

[LogistX]

[ QUOTE ]
so my next question is how much is the line being off worth? for instance, assuming that the line on the pats redskin game is correct at skins +16, how much is being able to bet them at +20 worth in ev?


also, yes, ties lose. and furthermore i am unfortunatly not able to bet these lines on a single game basis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have Sharp Sports Betting in front of me but this info is in there. Each number has a different value. For example, moving from 3 to 3.5 is bigger than 7 to 7.5 is bigger than other moves. Because ties lose, you can treat +20 as +19.5...

[hedgie43]

TB,

This should help:
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

[zOrO2k6]

Caliente's Parlay Card "Underdogs"

Rams +3.5
Lions +5.5
Panthers +7.5
Dolphins +10.5
Raiders +7.5
Vikings +1.5
Bengals +3.5
Bills +2.5
Texans +10.5
Jaguars +4.5
49ers +2.5
Redskins +17.5
Packers +3.5
-
Min bet: 1us
Max bet: 200us

Min Picks: 3
Max Picks: 15
-