NFL Week 2 overlays

[rjp]

Texans +14 -106
Titans +10.5 -104

The Colts and Chargers could win these games 100% of the time and you'd still have a positive expectation with the Texans and Titans.

[SoloAJ]

That analysis sold me [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[rjp]

It's all about the numbers. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Texans down to 13 (still an overlay).

[Thremp]

Basically isn't this a:


If you take the spread you're 50/50 that it'll be a blowout vs. any other outcome... Which isn't really that likely with partiy in the NFL?

I assume you take all spreads over +10? With sucha basic system do you have long term #s etc?

With history I'd assume the largest dogs this day in age cover at the greatest clip barring stat anonmalies.

[kevbo]

This past week I had Buffalo +10 and SF +9 based heavily (not exclusively) on parity in the NFL and it worked out well. Will be interesting to see how these type of bets work out once plenty of data are available.

[rjp]

Nothing magical to the plays I make, but since the season is very early the only wagers I will make are on outlandish numbers.

If you're familiar with the home and away NFL margin of victory data distributions then you'll know that, at the right price, you have a positive expectation getting 10 or more points for a team, even if they never win the game.

After a few games the teams will begin to show form, and then more lines will show value, but for now it's really just numbers that are over the top.

I really have no opinion on any games this early, so I just assume everyone loses 100% of the time, and if there's still value then it's a bet. In reality I won't give a team greater than a 90-95% chance of winning, I just use 100% to illustrate the point.

[rjp]

Add Cleveland +10.5 -104 to the list.

They key is having the right price--I don't make this bet at +10.5 -110, which is why I'm not going to take the Chiefs unless I can get them at +10.5 -104 or better (they're currently listed at +10.5 -107).

A small difference, sure, but over the long haul it makes a big difference.

[rjp]

Patience pays off.

Kansas City +10.5 -102

Looks like these will be the only ones I'll take this week.

There are some 9s out there, but they're likely to go down, not up.

[rjp]

Good thing the Raiders laid an egg last night.

Oakland +11 +100

Let the madness ensue.

[Parlay Slow]

You will lose the raiders, titans, and texans bet