Should I be shoving this ?

[eBo]

It is +cEV to push this hand. If the other opponents have a calling range as tight as slik suggests (JJ+,AK), then you should be pushing every hand.

Truth is, your opponents calling range will be wider, but not wide enough for this push to be -cEV. I would guess (88+,AJ+) is their calling range.

BTW, there's a lot of bad advice in this thread.

[slik]

I think the main question is how +cEV does the push have to be to make it +EV because clearly a small +cEV is -EV here. Any idea how to find out when cEV and EV converge/diverge?

A range of 88+, AJ+ is the top 6.6% of hands, which gives pushing an expectation of 58.8K if you work it out.

The JJ+, AK range is actually top 3.0% (not 5%) and gives a pushing expectation of 62.6K.

How can I calculate when cEV and EV converge?

[LuckyLloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
How can I calculate when cEV and EV converge?

[/ QUOTE ]

The starting point for anything in this thread is that the OP needs to tell us how much 10th place in this tournament pays (an entire payout structure wouldn't hurt); how much 9th place pays; and whether he is the shortest stack - and if so, by how much (he should give us the blind level; remaining time in the level; and the avg stack size in the tourney at this point) - and whether there are other stacks in trouble on either of the remaining tables.

[Chipchucker5]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, there's a lot of bad advice in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, such as 54s being a better push hand than KJo...it's not even close.

[slik]

Use pokerstove to see why you are wrong.

[slik]

I realize we need concrete numbers to make a calculation, but I was more interested in an overall approach so that I may find the solution to these sorts of problems in the future.

Let's say (from http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/tour...-structure/20/ where assumingn 2751-3000 entrants) that the payout structure is as follows:
1 15.8%
2 8.8%
3 5.2%
4 4%
5 3.1%
6 2.5%
7 1.95%
8 1.5%
9 1.12%
10-13 0.57%

Suppose you get 1,500 chips to start, and that there were 1,500 entrants, and that there are no super short stacks (feel free to change the numbers if these numbers don't seem reasonable). The blind level is given by OP: 6k/12k with ante (assume 500 ante). How do you go about solving this? Thank you.

[Chipchucker5]

[ QUOTE ]
Use pokerstove to see why you are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have pokerstove, but I guess if you really think their calling ranges are JJ+ and AK I can see why 54s is better, but I doubt that is their range. I would expect a range more like the one eBo indicated, like 88+, AJ+. And against that range, (and in almost every case in later stages of tournys) KJo fares far better against most calling ranges. KJo is in the top 15% of hands, while 54s falls into approximately the top 80%.

[slik]

---
616,429,440 games 0.005 secs 123,285,888,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.870% 31.60% 00.27% 194775132 1683630.00 { 54s }
Hand 1: 68.130% 67.86% 00.27% 418287048 1683630.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }


---



---
1,561,621,248 games 0.005 secs 312,324,249,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.230% 30.83% 00.40% 481480284 6212028.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 68.770% 68.37% 00.40% 1067716908 6212028.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }

Even in a generous range, KJo is far from being far better. With the tighter range, 56s is significantly better.

[kev123]

Payout was something like below,

1st 21K
2nd 12K
3rd 9K
4th 7K
5th 6K
6th 5K
7th 4K
8th 3K
9th 2K
10th $1250
11-20th $950

( 80 places paid )

Blinds are 3/6K with 600 ante

856 players *1500 chips / 12 players left = 107K Average

I was in 10th at the time with 55K , 11th has 45K , 12th has 38K, 9th has 80K

There was a few mins remaining at this level ( 5 approx )

Also interest in hearing how much you guys think my fold equity would change if I went through the blinds, or does it not matter to much for the next orbit as the same range is likely to call ?

I think the calling range will be different for each player, the two players on 80K & 95K might not really want to call for a large % of there stack at this time. ( If I`m them at this stage I`m calling closer to top 3% of hands, esp against utg raiser that isn`t too shortstacked & has solid image )

[Chipchucker5]

[ QUOTE ]
---
616,429,440 games 0.005 secs 123,285,888,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.870% 31.60% 00.27% 194775132 1683630.00 { 54s }
Hand 1: 68.130% 67.86% 00.27% 418287048 1683630.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }


---



---
1,561,621,248 games 0.005 secs 312,324,249,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.230% 30.83% 00.40% 481480284 6212028.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 68.770% 68.37% 00.40% 1067716908 6212028.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }

Even in a generous range, KJo is far from being far better. With the tighter range, 56s is significantly better.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are far from the numbers that I get using sit 'n go power tools. I have SngPT set to calculate cEV, and having stacks starting with hero utg with 55k and then 110k, 45k, 135k, 80k, 95k and blinds set at 3k/6k with a 300 chip ante. Hero shoving utg with KJo against calling ranges of JJ+ & AK gives us a shove of +47.5%EV (or +T6412) while pushing 65s gives us +46.7%EV (or +T6308). With calling ranges of 88+ & AJ+ and pushing KJo we get a +23.8%EV (or +T3218) and pushing 65s is +16.7%EV (or +T2259).