Waiting for the turn

[loyalguard]

[ QUOTE ]
Who am I trying to get rid of? If I bet, that makes it 11½-1, enough for gutshots to call. The only draw I'd be able to price out are backdoors.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, what's the better deal for your opponents: Getting 11.5:1 odds to call and see the turn or getting to see the turn for free?

[McNeese72]

[ QUOTE ]
No no no.

Preflop: marchron is Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO raises, marchron raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (15.5 SB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, marchron checks

This is the time to wait. I'll let others explain why. There are 2 key differences.

[/ QUOTE ]

The one difference I can see is that with AA no overcards can fall that could beat you but with 10's there are. Other than you have a backdoor straight draw with the 10's what is the other difference?

[RyanC]

BET THE FLOP. Yeah overpairs are bad but checking sure as %&$ isnt going to help out your cause.

[tjosan]

*grunch*
I thought it was about betting for value, if nothing else. Do I have this wrong?

Are the odds of the collected drawing possibilities of your opponants enough to give you incentive not to bet? And in that case, would you have folded against a bet on the flop?

[loyalguard]

[ QUOTE ]
No no no.

Preflop: marchron is Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO raises, marchron raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (15.5 SB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, marchron checks

This is the time to wait. I'll let others explain why. There are 2 key differences.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take a stab as well. In the revised Shillx example, preflop the CO raised and we 3-bet.

On the flop it is checked to us (as in the OP) but this time we should check behind. Reason: If we bet now with AA on this board, we will only fold out worse hands that we want in as long as possible (to include CO who may also have a big PP and willing to bet into us on the turn assuming we wiffed with overcards allowing us to raise).

Edit in italics.

[Shillx]

You might like this post as well.

Link

This is a good spot to check the flop. Obvioulsy not as good as the example I gave, but still a fine place to check. If he had TT OTOH, he would surely bet the flop.

[Jaran]

[ QUOTE ]
Have I finally mastered waiting for the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna say...nope. Checking this through is giving infinite odds to hands that have outs against you, and is bad poker.

-Jaran

[DQuinlan]

:grunch:

Pre-flop is fine.

I think I would have bet the flop. Even if you can eliminate just one of the players here that would be a good thing. Bit of aggression sometimes goes a long way.

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
No no no.

Preflop: marchron is Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO raises, marchron raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (15.5 SB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, marchron checks

This is the time to wait. I'll let others explain why. There are 2 key differences.

[/ QUOTE ]
Shill, you know I think you're awesome, and await every single little thing surrounding your posts (except your new av — it sucks, bring back the Gerber Baby). Having one of my posts be a part of your greatest hits compliation will likely be the most impressive thing I'll ever do on these boards in my whole entire [censored] life.

But I'm looking right at Small Stakes Hold'em (pp. 185-90 if you're following along at home), and in it NPA, Mason and The Brain advise not to raise 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on a flop of 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. In that hand, though, there's already been a bet and raise in front of the action, but all the same, they advise not to press this advantage here because the turn card will significantly change our equity. That's virtually a direct quote: "With the tens, no matter what comes on the turn, your pot equity will change drastically." (188)

I see the same problem here. The pot is smaller, but there's a boatload of cards I don't want to see on the turn. I have very little edge to push, and if one of potentially 22 cards comes (any overcard plus the remaining hearts except 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), I may have no edge at all.

So where's the difference?

P.S. they advise reraising with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on that same flop, but one of the differences there is the backdoor nut flush possibility. That isn't there for the tens example and isn't there in my hand. Also, in both SSHE examples, there's the potential for a reraise/cap by the early-position bettor/raiser to offer the slightest bit of hand protection. I very much doubt I'll get BB to check/raise me here.

[martinimagic]

*Grunch*

Good raise PF.

If the table is loose passive you need to bet. Always have to be improving your chances and not give a free card. Someone might have a pair, but you are still ahead here.

Keep betting turn and river with safe cards. I don't think your chances are as bad as you think.