Remember Miller

[Propping Fool]

I was brushing up on some basic preflop strategy. I realised I might be misplaying my small pairs.

Miller says "you would like to see the flop cheaply, for one, or at most, two bets." pg 67 frist edition (old school)

In my game today, things got really crazy. Preflop was capped very often by multiple lags. As long as I am getting 3:1 (or better) on my preflop money, why can't I play any pocket pair (for any amount of bets).

[jay_shark]

First , it depends on how many players are in the pot and how large you expect the pot to be when you do win . If all 9 players see a flop , then you should be willing to call 4 bb's with it .

An old question from the twoplustwo archives is whether or not it's correct to call 4 bb's preflop when there are 5 other players in the hand . If you expect to win 4*10=40 bb's then it's probably a good idea you see a flop. This safeguards you when you hit your set and lose with it .

[Mook]

[ QUOTE ]
In my game today, things got really crazy. Preflop was capped very often by multiple lags. As long as I am getting 3:1 (or better) on my preflop money, why can't I play any pocket pair (for any amount of bets).

[/ QUOTE ]
Where did you get the "3:1" notion from? The odds of flopping a set are 8:1 against, and you won't always win even when you do hit.

What you're concerned about, as the previous poster referenced, is the amount on average you stand to win when you hit. In a nutshell, that's why you want to see the flop cheap with small pairs: every extra 1 SB that goes in pre-flop requires an extra 10 SB in post-flop action (more or less) in the pots you win to make the proposition break-even overall.

The other issue with staying in with small pairs in bloated pots is that you'll often hit something less than a set, but will be obligated to continue on anyway because your pot odds are so huge. For example, you find yourself calling 4 SB in a 6-way capped pot with 44 and the flop comes 652. With 6 outs it's usually a mistake to fold here no matter what the flop and turn action, so thanks to the resident maniacs you'll often wind up throwing 4 more SB and then 2-3 BB into a pot that you'll lose the vast majority of the time. (This is an even bigger problem for hands like suited connectors when played in these spots.)

The crazier the preflop betting, the more you wind up taking the worst of it with mediocre speculative hands like small pairs.

Mook

[RobNottsUk]

In past 5:1 was Sklansky recommendation.

Wild loose games, where players are capping 3-way pots with A-rag and K-rag, JT etc, medium and small pairs suffer badly. Especially if those players slow down on the turn, once it's clear you're staying in the hand.

One estimate is that 25% of flopped sets are subsequently outdrawn, in multi-way pots, so you actually want better pot odds than you think from a 7.5-1 'odds' calculation, 8-1 if you think a higher pair is likely (set v under-set situation).

Run some equity calcs, medium pairs suffer badly once there's multiple overcards against them. Yep, it's sick folding 88 in the BB, knowing it's the best hand but if you call 2 bets, it's likely to be 4 betted and you'll pay too much to catch your set.

[pzhon]

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The other issue with staying in with small pairs in bloated pots is that you'll often hit something less than a set, but will be obligated to continue on anyway because your pot odds are so huge. For example, you find yourself calling 4 SB in a 6-way capped pot with 44 and the flop comes 652. With 6 outs it's usually a mistake to fold here no matter what the flop and turn action, so thanks to the resident maniacs you'll often wind up throwing 4 more SB and then 2-3 BB into a pot that you'll lose the vast majority of the time. (This is an even bigger problem for hands like suited connectors when played in these spots.)

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not a problem. You aren't obligated to continue. If the draw isn't profitable, don't call. The opportunity is a net plus, and it is a reason that middle pairs are significantly stronger than low pairs in limit, since it is much more likely to flop a profitable 6 or 10 out straight draw with a middle pair. You much more frequently win unimproved, say on a 976 flop, where you continue with 88 and might beat someone with 87.

Bloated pots are a problem for your implied odds. You not only have to count on a lot more money going in after you hit, you have to count on your opponents to make FTOP errors, calls that would be mistakes if they could see your hand. They will made some of them, e.g., when they are drawing to a pair, to two pair, or to trips that would give you a full house. However, in a bloated pot they would be correct to draw to a gutshot, and these correct calls count against your implied odds even though the pot gets larger after you hit. Good implied odds mean that you expect to win more than the size of the pot when you hit, but if your opponent is making a correct Fundamental Theorem of Poker call, then in some sense you expect less than the size of the pot.

[Al Mirpuri]

[ QUOTE ]
I was brushing up on some basic preflop strategy. I realised I might be misplaying my small pairs.

Miller says "you would like to see the flop cheaply, for one, or at most, two bets." pg 67 frist edition (old school)

In my game today, things got really crazy. Preflop was capped very often by multiple lags. As long as I am getting 3:1 (or better) on my preflop money, why can't I play any pocket pair (for any amount of bets)?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can. As long as it is being capped on the flop, turn and river (or close to such a state of affairs) then you are getting the implied odds. It means you have to be disciplined about folding when you miss.

However, if the action dries up on the flop then you should not because you are not getting the implied odds to make up for all the bets you put in preflop.

[Mook]

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That's not a problem. You aren't obligated to continue. If the draw isn't profitable, don't call.

[/ QUOTE ]
But the problem with these weak one-card draws is that you often don't know whether it's profitable or not. With 44 on a 652 flop, against 4 or 5 opponents, are your set outs good or is someone hanging around with a trey? If you hit a 3, are you playing for half the pot? Or will some nutcase holding 98 river a 7 and leave you holding the a$$ end?

You can't always assume the worst in these spots or you're throwing away too much equity in these huge pots - so, in that sense, you are "obligated to continue". Yet most of the time, continuing means you'll spend 8 or 10 more SB's getting to the river only to frequently get shown better hands.

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The opportunity is a net plus, and it is a reason that middle pairs are significantly stronger than low pairs in limit, since it is much more likely to flop a profitable 6 or 10 out straight draw with a middle pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree completely with the second half of that statement - but in cases where you're holding small pairs in crazy multiway pots, I don't agree at all with the first part of it.

Mook

[pzhon]

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You aren't obligated to continue. If the draw isn't profitable, don't call.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the problem with these weak one-card draws is that you often don't know whether it's profitable or not.


[/ QUOTE ]
If your best guess is that the draw is profitable, continue. If not, fold. If you are wrong, learn and fix your intuition.

The PokerRoom statistics are based on all players, not just winning players. They show some oddities such as 72s losing more than 72o, since more losing players will play 72s than 72o, while winning players generally know not to play either. However, even these stats show that middle pairs in early position in loose games do much better than low pairs, which suggests that even average players are getting some value on average from the extra 6 and 10 out draws and increased showdown value, and are not getting trapped on average. The opportunity should not be a net minus for winning players.