donking this flop?

[JJack]

UTG+2: 17.47/9.69/1.89 - 570 hands


0.25/0.50 Fixed-Limit Hold'em <font color="blue">(10 handed)</font>
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.7 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="grey">UTG folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="grey">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="grey">3 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.4 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="red">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="grey">BB folds</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

<ul type="square">Here i have probably about 9 outs so i have idea to donk this flop cus:
- if im behind i wanna build pot cus i have good pot equity and wanna clean my pottential outs like J when UTG+1 raise me, also i wanna kick out all KQ hands.
- if im ahead i wanna make value bet with great redraws until river[/list]Turn: (8.7 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks.

River: (8.7 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

<ul type="square">Here i probably should just fold after MP3 overcall, but when all check turn i decide i have to call one cus pot is quite big.[/list]Final Pot: 11.7 BB

Any mistakes in my thinking?

[CrMenace]

Your reasoning is right on the flop, but to build an even bigger pot, I would consider c/r'ing.

Given the action, river is a call, I think. It looks like you're not the only busted SD out there, plus you have top pair to boot. I think MP2 is busy padding your pot for you, making a call all the more attractive.

[sharpie]

Flop is close, the only reason I would consider donking is because the pf-r should check through with AK on this board, but it will often get bet behind you anyway, so I prefer check/raising. If you donk and get raised you're usually behind against a slightly passive TAG type, and I doubt anyone is folding many hands you want them to.

I would fold the river. It does look like you have MP2 beat, but sometimes he will suprise you, and I can't see the TAG playing a worse hand like this and betting the river unless it's specifically A9s, and even that might not value bet. He would have to be a madman to bluff here.

[Todd]

I would imagine that UTG, holding an overpair, got nervous on the turn, but bets a safe river.

My sense it that he could have a hand as strong as TT or as weak as QQ.

I would like to think I would fold this river, cuz i am sure am beat, but I would probably spew the one bet.

[NIX]

I like a flop check/raise instead of a donk. You'll still probably build the pot since I'd expect someone to bet at this flop. Other than possibly a naked queen, I don't think a lot of the hands you'd like to fold to fold, so I'd rather build the pot by trying to trap people rather than blowing them out if the PFRer raises your donk.

I fold the river as well.

[Sushiglutton]

The value of a flop donk depends on how u expect UTG+2 to play OC's, AK-AJ. Some TAG's would consider folding this flop with AK agaisnt a donk. I think I would (depending on reads). The problem for the TAG is the two players behind him and the super bad texture of the flop. If this happens it's great for us.

If he raises OC's like AJ (I would), and AQ it's also a good thing for us.

The type of TAG u should not lead into is someone who simply calls all OCs but would make a c-bet if u check. Then a CR is a better play.

Since the pot is so big allready I think we should focus on protection. So I like the lead.

River is tough.

[carlosoli]

I like the lead on the flop for the reason that hopefully the PF raiser will again raise and isolate. I would definitely like the hand much better HU against possible OCs. The only thing that would worry me was the reraise. Overall, I would probably play it the same.