Matusow's O8 article

[slik]

I just read an O8 article he wrote on full tilt: http://www.philivey.com/phil-ivey-tips.php?learntips=94, where he justifies cold capping 9KQ2 in a multiway pot from the big blind preflop. I think he is really incorrect for cold capping a basically 3 card hand from the second worst position. Does any one else agree with him? Perhaps you can help me see the light (if there is any).

[SmoothDude]

It's not something that I would do, but he explains it pretty well. If you think everyone else is playing the low cards, then the board is far more likely to bring high cards.

I know Gus Hansen said something similar for NLHE which is why in multi-way pots he loves the low cards.

[franknagaijr]

I read the article and it made sense at the time, and then I just revisited and crunched the numbers to come back with the judgement that it was a borderline losing gamble, but a great way to establish a table-image as a total jack-in-the-box and to put all the solid players on tilt if it worked out for him.

There were four players who really liked their cards, 20 out of the deck. Safe to assume the four aces are accounted for, possibly three deuces, and a whole bunch of baby/wheel cards. 28 black box cards.

It cost MM two big bets to see the flop, and for the sake of argument, let's assume there will be about 20 big bets in the pot apart from what MM requires to continue to the river. That's 10 to 1 odds if he scoops, 5 to 1 if he chops.

Also for the sake of argument, let's say that of the 20 cards in play, distribute as follows:
4 - Aces
8 - 2 to 5
2 - 6 to 8
2 - 9 to K

I think the ace/wheel guesses are reasonable, but we have no way of knowing how many of the 6 to K cards are accounted for.

MM's ideal flop is trips, or TJx rainbow. If all of the Ts and Js are live, he's about 13% (C1) to flop those two cards, but more likely about 9.5% to flop that desireable outcome. If all Ks, Qs and 9s are live, he's about 7% (C2)to flop trips, which is potentially enough to take the high pot. That's an optimal 20% chance of seeing a flop worth continuing on. (It drops for every 9TJQK that is not live.) Can he continue for an inside straight? Can he continue on two pair on a flush draw board? Even with so many babies accounted for, I don't think there's a mathematical justification here for these lesser draws.

Without digging deeper into post-flop probability, let's give him a 50% chance of taking the top half of the pot, and a 50% chance of no low being awarded. He needs a 5 to 1 return on the initial investment to consider getting involved, which he is almost getting preflop, and post flop, he is probably getting the odds he needs to continue on any favorable flop.

I think if we dug deeper into the flush possibilities, his straight draws drop in value, and also his flopped trips drop in value as well. By the time you plunge into the math here, he cannot have been 'correct' to cap the pot here, but he was probably not ridiculously incorrect either.

It helps that MM was playing with tight, knowledgeable players. In the average Lo8 donkament, MM would have no way of guessing how many low cards were accounted for based on the action so far. You've seen people get excited about KKT5, so don't try this at home, kids.


C1 - ((8*4*26)/(28 *27 *26)) *3 =0.0146
C2 = ((3*2*26)/(28*27*26)) * 3 *3 = 0.0714

[Beavis68]

matusow is a crack head

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
matusow is a crack head

[/ QUOTE ]

That is true -- although it doesn't mean his thought process is wrong in the right game.

[EffenDolts]

How are his chances if a couple of his opponents are in love with their A2HH-ds hands.

[slik]

Thanks for the reply! It's really tough to mathematically analyze situations like this, and you do an admiral job.

The biggest problem I have is probably Matusow's assumption that no one else has high cards. While they may have premium hands, there is a very significant chance that someone has a premium hand with only high cards.

He also goes on to say as his only supporting evidence to do this very anti-intuitive move as that others probably dont have high cards, and then he will clean them out if high cards come. By his very claim, one would think his opponents will fold if all high cards come (if they all have low cards and completely miss the flop), giving him poor implied odds. Finally, his rag card gives him a 3 card (vs 4 card) handicap. Also, this doesn't take into account his very bad position, against seemingly "good players".

In the end, you conclude that it's marginally -EV. I wonder if anyone actually thinks it's neutral or +EV.

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I just read an O8 article he wrote on full tilt: http://www.philivey.com/phil-ivey-tips.php?learntips=94, where he justifies cold capping 9KQ2 in a multiway pot from the big blind preflop. I think he is really incorrect for cold capping a basically 3 card hand from the second worst position. Does any one else agree with him? Perhaps you can help me see the light (if there is any).

[/ QUOTE ]

this is just nonsense, and it's based on assumptions.

also, cold-capping this hand from the BB means it's been 3-bet by the time it gets back to you.


and FTR, if even one of the limpers holds K-Q-J-10 you're going to be crushed.

also, this strategy assumes that the player plays correct postflop.

terrible advice.

[slik]

[ QUOTE ]
also, cold-capping this hand from the BB means it's been 3-bet by the time it gets back to you.

[/ QUOTE ]
(this is what happened)

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also, cold-capping this hand from the BB means it's been 3-bet by the time it gets back to you.

[/ QUOTE ]
(this is what happened)

[/ QUOTE ]

i was highlighting the fact that in this specific situation there's been a raise and a 3-bet when it comes back around to you in the BB, which would mean an auto fold.