Ivey vs. Corey Pavin golf bet

[Guy Incognito]

I'm a 10-12 handicap, and I've played in many scrambles.

Given those conditions, I'd probably shoot between 10-15 under, with 3 balls.

[apefish]

If Ivey is a 15 and gets 3 attempts at each shot it becomes interesting.
It would be interesting to see on average how many penalty strokes getting to hit each shot 3 times would save the average 15 handicapper.
The real question is how much course mismanagement the extra shots lets you overcome. If Ivey bleeds all his extra shots away because he doesnt realize that three rips at a pin at 190 with a 6 iron just aint gonna happen he cant win the bet. If however he is capable of making adjustments this could be interesting.
My dad is a 15.
fwiw we had an event during league this summer where you got to hit your tee shot twice on every hole and take a mulligan once per side. my dad as a 15 handicap shot 75 (rating right at 71)
It is not unreasonable that a mid handicapper like that has enough game to cover the shots he normally bleeds away with extra attempts that compensate for lack of consistency and normal bad course management.
Estimates of Tiger Woods handicap are in the +7.5 range. I would put Pavin somewhere in the +4 to +5 range if that is accurate.
So how much advantage does it take for Ivey to make that up?

Fwiw I dont at all buy they will "average -5 on a non tour course". Playing from the tips on a reasonably decent course its hard to say that guys who play to a +4 or so will "average" that. Handicap doesnt translate to average strokes under par. Its a measure of the top tier of your scores.

Also- as an 9 handicap I am reasonably confident that I become nearly a scratch golfer with two attempts at each shot scramble style.

[PokerJans]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a 10-12 handicap, and I've played in many scrambles.

Given those conditions, I'd probably shoot between 10-15 under, with 3 balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you show me you USGA handicap card that shows you are 10 handicap I would bet your every dollar to my name you cant break 10 under at any TPC course.

[PokerJans]

Wow, people do not understand the difference between your local muni 6500 track and a 7250 TPC course.

Never played TPC Summerlin but I would promise anyone it would make any stupid course I have played here in the OC look silly. And I have played them all.

[Guy Incognito]

I don't have a card, hence the estimation. And I've played the TPC at Myrtle Beach, and didn't find it that difficult. And this would be a 5500 yard course from the reds, I'm assuming.

[By-Tor]

people seem to think these second and third shots are guarenteed to be closer without knowing anything (or little) about phils game.

is he short off the tee? hmmm, i doubt the second shot would be longer.

does he have long iron problems? yeah, those second shots wont get much better either.

ok, so he's laying 3 from 30-40 yards out. unless he's the magic man with a wedge, he is still looking to bearly save par on most of the holes.

as others have mentioned, 3 shots give him a much better chance, but those tee shots and long irons are still going to be short/offline.



lol, 'DN says he a great putter'....boy, there's an endorsment.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[NicksDad1970]

Wouldn't the 2nd and 3rd shot be there more for terrible shots (like hooks) more than distance or being perfectly in the middle of the fairway?

I've played little golf but for a beginner to average player it seems the blowup shots are the ones that really ness you up. Not the fact that on a 2nd or 3rd shot ivey might get an extra 10 yds.

[apefish]

I absolutely do understand the difference. What you seem to be missing is that handicaps resolve this difference among different courses. Pavins skill isnt "more valuable" on an easier course. Nor is Iveys more of a hindrance on a tougher one. Not like you want us to believe.
Unless you are trying to say the average public course plays to a course rating well below par even from its most difficult setup- which having played 100 courses over the past 3-4 years I would argue is an incorrect assumption and still is resolved by the handicap system for matching the players up.
if pavin is a +5handicap and Ivey is a 15- the question is at what point does Ivey get 20 shots of benefit from the rules of the bet.
I have already volunteered that as a 9 I believe I get most of those nine shots back from ONE extra ball per shot per round.
The biggest problems mid handicappers have are consistency and course management. Which obviously extra attempts help with.
If Ivey cant undertstand he misclubs every shot I've already argued the benefit isnt as great as if he simply hits a few left and a few right and chunks shots here and there.
But if he has an awareness of the flaws in his game extra shots help a ton.

nicksdad. Yes- it isnt the extra yards Ivey benefits from on two similar usable but not good shots. Its the not having to hit the second shot from 50 yards off the tee or going out of bounds. Or the bad stroke on the 4 foot putt that he now gets to line up twice more. People underestimate how much more things like that affect mid handicappers than only driving the ball 230 does.

[LimitGod]

FWIW I actually work at Summerlin and see these guys a lot. Pavin would destroy Phil with either 2 or 3 shots. The scramble would really only help Phil on the greens. He obviously would have a tough time ever 3putting. I haven't heard or seen anything happen but if I do I'll post it.

[leatherass]

I've played golf for a living for a few years and feel pretty qualified to give everyone a reliable opinion. Phil Ivey has absolutely no chance to win this bet. I've given people these types of bets before myself and it's a sucker bet. Ivey will be scrambling to make pars and will still have an occasionally devastating hole and is basically just hand Corey money. I'd personally take this bet with Phil Ivey and I'm not as good as Corey obviously. TPC at Summerlin is an easy course even from the tips and you can expect Corey to shoot in the 60s more often than not. From what I've heard of Ivey he will probably still shoot in the mid to high 70s at best. At Corey's absolute worst he's not going to shoot much more than about 73 or 74. He's also not going to succomb to the pressure of $10k a hole because he has putts for those kinds of money everytime he plays golf. I'll take Corey if anyone want's some action on this..lol.