Which choice on turn?

[Jim Morgan]

Playing a game with few pre-flop raises, but somewhat aggressive post flop, I get dealt KhKd on the button. After 5 limpers, I raise. All but the SB call and we see a flop with 7 BBs. (assume SB = rake)

Ts9s7c.

To me, this is a BAD flop. I'm praying I don't face a bet and a raise (or more) here. As nice as my hand is, I could quite easily be drawing almost dead.

I don't know if I could fold here to a bet and a raise and several callers, but I would want to. Seems like my hand is a significant underdog to the field even if it is currently the best hand.

In this hand the BB leads out and 4 people call. Since I think this is a bad flop and my hand is one turn card away from being a total POS, I call. I know others support raising here, but let's set that aside for now and at least agree that smooth calling is a rational play.

Pot now at 10 BB

The turn comes 7s. Again the BB leads out and there are 4 callers.

Raise or call?

My question is not just about this hand. This kind of situations comes up a lot and the variables shift depending upon the flop and how it has played out. My question is more focussed on having a general clue about raising into somewhat dangerous boards with large pots with a fragile, but fairly strong hand like this one.

In this situation, If I raise and get called, I'm pretty happy, but if I get reraised, I have 18-20:1 odds on 2-4 outs (or I'm leading vs
hands like 9T or JJ) So now it seems like I have to call it the reraise and river on the off chance that villian actually had a hand like JJ that I beat.

I could have called and seen a cheap river or I could raise on what I am hoping is a situation with favorable equity.

Raising feels like spew when I am beat and get-rerasied. Even if I miss, I probably need to call to defend against 9T, JJ, QQ or maniac.

Calling feels like a wimpy way to play. My pot equity could easily be 50% or more and failing to raise leaves a lot of money on the table.

It seems like a math problem

Will I get 3-bet and lose (either to a hand that beats me now, or one that outdraws me) so often that I lose more here than I gain when I either have the best hand or get lucky on the river.

With this pot and relative position to the better, it seems impossible to really protect the pot since if I am 3-bet I am usually behind and the callers are not likely to fold for one more bet.

Put me UTG, and I think rasising is clearly correct, and most likely waiting until the turn is correct too because now some draws simply won't call 2 bets cold.

So, which is more likely, Raising is spew or calling is being a little girl?

Jim

[bdaddy]

this hand is almost identical to the one I posted earlier today.."wait til turn?" I raise the turn and play on.

[ackid]

Raise the flop.

This flop does suck for us but where ahead here more than you think... The fact that nobody raised the flop is a very good sign. BB maybe on a f/d and face field with a rr, which may cause some of the weaker draws to drop.

[SNOWBALL]

[ QUOTE ]

Raise the flop.

This flop does suck for us but where ahead here more than you think... The fact that nobody raised the flop is a very good sign. BB maybe on a f/d and face field with a rr, which may cause some of the weaker draws to drop.


[/ QUOTE ]

We can't really count on BB reraising nor can we count on people folding to his 3 bet. We also don't want it to end up getting reraised by one of the callers who suddenly decided to come alive with his set/2pair/flush draw. I'd much much rather wait until the turn for a relatively good card like a deuce (or in this case a seven) and raise.

This saves us a ton of money when the board makes 4 to a straight and 3 to a flush, and the action tells us we are stone dead. Be nice to your bankroll, and just call the flop.

I think we have a lot of value on a turn raise on this board. The flop, no, not so much.

[Jim Morgan]

Sorry, I meant the turn was 7d. I did not mean to complete the flush here

Jim

[Jim Morgan]

It is very similar to a post I saw before...
My question I guess is more general and pertains to raising on the turn with overpair with many callers. Seems like there are solid arguments for just calling down with the overpair and also solid arguments for raising on the turn.

So far everyone seems to

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing a game with few pre-flop raises, but somewhat aggressive post flop, I get dealt KhKd on the button. After 5 limpers, I raise. All but the SB call and we see a flop with 7 BBs. (assume SB = rake)

Ts9s7c.

To me, this is a BAD flop. I'm praying I don't face a bet and a raise (or more) here. As nice as my hand is, I could quite easily be drawing almost dead.



[/ QUOTE ]

The only hands to which you are drawing dead are the very unlikely J8 and 86, although there are a number of cards which could fall on the turn which could kill your hand. Consequently, I wouldn't be all that upset about a bet and a raise on this flop, since you are likely still ahead.

FWIW, if you are going to be playing this scared it would be better to not play at all...or at least move down in stakes.

[JacksonTens]

raise/fold turn if he is a normal LAP, bet a happy river card..

You must understand that 7 is a happy card for you! a J would be a sad card...

JT