Baby Steps: 55

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Daver,

Hmm... That's a good point. If we three-bet without the intention of betting every turn:

-What cards are we checking behind (As and flush cards? Other face cards?)
-How often are we actually making an error checking there? Are we checking behind a non-flush A if it gets heads-up with MP?
-Are we calling a river bet? Are we calling a river bet if it gets heads-up and the turn is a flush card.



I'm intrigued by your line of reasoning, but I want to have a better sense of how you are constructing the turn and river play in order to evaluate it. For the flop three-bet to be correct it seems we need to be realizing a very, very high percentage of our flop equity and in order for that to happen we need to play the turn and the river very, very well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm checking behind only flush cards and I'm not calling a river bet unless something happens that makes me think his range is skewed to something else.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think alot of those broadway cards get donked don't you? and most of the time a spade is bet hoping to b/3b as well. so when raising the flop i think they fold less than you think and we get a free card less often than you think based on the turn card. i may be wrong, i don't play the full tilt 8/16 THAT often and most stats were mined. i assume these players have the typical tendencies of the players in the 10 and 15 games. i am still thinking; i really like the decision. like i said earlier, at the table 3betting felt right(and 3handed i 3bet EVERY time), but i really thought these TP's were the type to get semimarried to a good hand and give a little more action given the flop odds in deciding to see the turncard. there is a correllation between calling and folding respectively when someone has already put money in and continues calling more bets and not having invested any money at that point and then being faced with larger bets cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry James, just noticed this. I haven't played much online since July but from what I remember I think you'll get donked on the turn rarely, flopped/turned monsters will often try to cr.

[/ QUOTE ]

i completely forgot about this post, so no worries. what i really feel like will happen is they call the 3bet anyway because they are the types to get married to a good starting hand regardless of how live or thin they may be drawing. what i'm really getting at is IMO two sb's is less of a deterrent for their continuing than 2 bb's.

[robby.hart]

RAISE!

[robby.hart]

Gotta open.

[twickn]

raise

[Jim Morgan]

[ QUOTE ]

i like 3-betting the flop as well, these blinds seem like exactly the type who are going to fold overcards to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

And they probably should fold to a 3-bet. Since neither check-raised the flop, that is very likely what they have. They probably have less outs than the 6 that they have if everything is ideal. They probably have more like 3-4 outs each on average, maybe fewer.

I agree that the CR looks like a draw or a monster.

Once in awhile I'd probably make the pre-flop raise here, but I admit that I would not handle the flop like this.
I'd probably check the flop.

1. Nobody is folding for 1 bet, so giving them that free card is only slightly bad when I actually have the best hand.
2. I don't want to be check-raised by one of the blinds
and wind up donationg a big bet instead of getting a free turn.
In other words, betting as the current leader is actually not worth much EV against the almost certain calls, but if I step into a CR by a blind, I will have given away a great deal of equity by leading out. When I am either a little ahead or way behind, I prefer checking unless I think that betting will cause people to fold (and therefore increase my overall chances of winning.

However, betting the flop is certainly reasonable. The big piece I missed here is that I would not think to 3-bet the limper here, but in this situation, I think it is a very fine play. It might even get hand like 88 to fold.




After all, most of the time this sequence of bets is out there, 88 is either a little ahead or way behind, and that is probably often enough to warrat folding. I'm guessing that 88 will only win this hand about 1 in 8 times because it will already be behind quite often and will get outdrawn many of the other times. The current pot odds for calling are roughly 8:1, but this hand has terrible reverse implied odds. I know if I was in the SB with 88, I'd probably check and call one bet but fold to the 3-bets. I might CR the flop, but probably not. After all, the initial raiser saw the capped flop and he should be afraid to bet into the reraising blinds without a quality hand. So.... CR with 88 here is probably just donating money to one of the other raisers. If I CR that 88 and get hit for 3 bets, I will not be happy. Sure, I might isolate AK, but that seems overly optimistic against solid opponents.