Late game strategy? When to/not to take the flip?

[linuxrocks]

I have been playing some 11Rs recently, and I have been pretty close to making the FT and it seemed like I take a flip and I am gone. At this level, no one ever folds any thing good for a re-raise all-in no matter how big your stack is. So, is it worth going broke?

Two scenarios.

11R, late game. 11 people left. All of the people on my table have -ROIs and haven't played any thing bigger than 11s. Villian got his big stack by calling every short-stack's allin with all kinds of hands K9, QT, AX, 55, you name it. He has never folded to a re-raise from a short-stack. He knows that I am solid and I have shown nothing but good hands. He has folded once to my re-raise all-in from BB, when he raised from button. I am sure he had crap, otherwise he woulda insta-called. I folded hands like 88 and AT to him before. Tried playing the flop with AQo once, and I didn't hit and he hit the bet button. He has played very few tournies mostly 2/0.2s. Now, what do you do in this scenario? I know that he is going to call with any AX and many pairs. I know that it's +EV, but is it worth it at this stage? I was like 5/11 or some thing and I know that I am better than at least 3/4ths of the field. Do I need to go broke here?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t16000 with t1600 antes (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t219745)
UTG+1 (t489320)
CO (t482545)
Hero (t214693)
SB (t240157)
BB (t162080)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to t48000</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero ??</font>

This is slightly different scenario. 60 people left, and I am like 30/60 or some thing. Again, no big names, just random players who ocassionally play. Most of them have -ROIs. Villian is loose passive who check called with QQ on AAxTx board and won against JTs. I took the flop, as I thought I can get away from it easily as villian will telegraph his hand for sure. I was very sure that he had a pair on the flop. AQs on this flip is slightly better than a flip against a pair like TT, JJ. I almost folded this, what do you do in this scenario? Fold, and wait for a better spot?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t6000 with t600 antes (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t178315)
UTG+1 (t399078)
Hero (t122230)
MP2 (t95578)
MP3 (t139432)
CO (t183207)
Button (t136322)
SB (t63714)
BB (t140900)

Preflop: Hero is in MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to t18000</font>, Hero calls t18000, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Flop: (t50400) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">UTG+1 bets t46000</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises ??</font>

Overall, I am always at pains with situations where I think I should play small ball. It just doesn't make any sense to flip when I know that I am better than these guys. How do people cope up with this? Does every one take every +EV move late game? or Wait for good spots? Note that I am not saying that we should play weak-tight or just tighten up and not steal blinds. I am going to keep chugging away but not get into huge flips when I know I have no FE. Comments?

[levAA]

I think the first important point here is your M in both situations, which is about 6 in the first and 8,5 in the second situation.

So there isn't much you can do now but look for these small edges and flip.

A good tourney means you acquire as many chips as you can with big M, so that you are able to lose one or two flips against a small stack, when blinds start to catch up.

There is no possibility to play smallball with M=6. You can't limp, you can't raise/fold, all you can do is push. look for good stealing opportunities, look for possible re-stealers. but i don't think you can't avoid flips to win.

[linuxrocks]

Why? I mean, why do you have to go broke in flips? I am stealing enough and the players are soft and readable. Isn't it better to look for slightly bigger edges like 60/40 or above. I understand the sentiment behind "you have to win the flips to win the tourney", but you don't have to take every phreaking one of them. Right?

[levAA]

i agree

i'm also looking for 60/40 as long as i can, if my M drops beyond 5 i usually take 50/50 as well.

[woohoo88]

I'm on break so I don't have a lot of time to elaborate, but I wanted to point out what could be some slightly flawed thinking here. You shouldn't be thinking solely in terms of your chance to win at showdown. You need to work out the EV of a given situation and base your descision on that. If you figure you're 40% vs someone's range but are getting 2:1 folding would be horrendous.


FWIW these both look like shoves pf w/ your reads. The second one as played definitly shove flop.

[linuxrocks]

Every time some one raises, it seems like you have enough dead money in the pot because of the huge blinds and antes, so you almost always are getting good equity. For example, 99 is +EV against his possible range clearly. But, does that mean we should risk our tournament life with it? Is it ok to fold it, if I think I am better than others?

[b-komplex]

To make $$$ playing tournaments you need to play for first. First hand is a clear shove, thought about stop and go but I think shove is better. Second hand is a shove also though not a pleasant one.

[donquay]

I shove both times.

First situation, it's fold or shove and I'm not folding 99 against a big stack who's raising fairly wide at a 6 handed table. You might be 5/11 runners but with blind sizes relative to stacks there's a lot of racing that needs to be done to win anyways why not now.

2nd situation, that's a draw where I'm willing to risk busting...if you shove he's definitely calling (with hopefully JJ at best) so you're risking the 100k or so you have left behind to win 96k in the pot plus whatever he has left to call the shove

[Cleverbeans]

[ QUOTE ]
Every time some one raises, it seems like you have enough dead money in the pot because of the huge blinds and antes, so you almost always are getting good equity. For example, 99 is +EV against his possible range clearly. But, does that mean we should risk our tournament life with it? Is it ok to fold it, if I think I am better than others?

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's +EV then you should be making a play with it, or are you saving your tournament life to find -EV spots? The reason you jam when you're short is because if you make a normal raise and they jam over you it's an easy call based on pot odds, you might as well max out your fold equity by pushing first.

[dfbuzzbeater]

I think you're forgetting something and focusing on the fact that you were in a flip situation both times.

In hand 1: you say yourself that he makes a lot of loose calls. Then, granted, he'll call you with QJ and coinflip hands that you wouldn't mind him folding, but he'll also call you with 22-88 and A2-A9 - hands that you really want to be all-in against in a situation like this.

And in the second hand, what is your rationale for a fold in this spot? You are RARELY an underdog here, unless he has AA-QQ (it's very very unlikely he has a set here). I just think folding as a slight favorite (when you could be a strong favorite and are rarely an underdog) is not a smart play.