Biggest Downswing of my Career - Advice Needed

[ohgodthissux]

Hi All,

So where do I start...I've been playing Poker for a few years but just started taking it seriously last January. I started with the cent limits and built my roll using the standard guidelines and have now reached a point where I am very much overrolled for 3-6. I "took a shot" at 5-10 a month ago but dropped down after a mini losing streak and went back to my comfort zone at 3-6.

But in this past month at 3-6 I have been running horribly (or so I hope). Over 25,000 hands I have been averaging -.5BB/100hands. I always see the downswing posts on 2p2 and I have been critiquing my game but I really dont see many flaws. I compare my stats to the compiled numbers "CallMeIshmael" posted a while back to fill a few leaks but overall my numbers are close to what a "winning player's" are supposed to be.

The only leaks I have found are that I don't fold to enough river bets - 2p2 mean is 45%, mine is 32%. And I need to get my VPIP in the SB down 5%. But are these major faults? I mean I try not to fold winners on the river in big pots but maybe I need to listen to my gut a little more when I know I'm beat.

So...is a 25,000 hand losing streak something for me to get worried about my game over or is this variance, has this happened to others??

thanks guys.

[Bob T.]

First the good news, if my arithmatic is right, you are on a 125 big bet downswing. Yeah, that happens. It sucks when it does, but it still happens.

Now lets take a little deeper look. Ok, lets test the assumption that you are a 1.5 bb/100 player at this limit.

If that were true, your expectation over 25000 hands would be about 375 Big bets, instead you are down 125, a shortfall of 500. If your SD/ 100 was 15, then the expected standard deviation over 25000 hands would be:

SQRT( 250*15*15) or 237. That means that your shortfall over the last 25000 hands would be almost 2 Standard deviations. In other words, there is probably a less than 1% chance that you are a 1.5 BB / 100 player with that losing stretch.

Ok, now for some other bad news. A lot of times, I see a player who has statistics that make them look like a good player. But when you see them play, you see that they are making a lot of mistakes, where they are playing hands improperly, or just playing the wrong mix of hands. For instance, a couple of weeks ago, I was playing with a player that seemed fairly tight, and appropriately aggressive. Two to his right, was a player who was as big of a calling station, as I have seen on the internet for a long time. He actually called river bets on more than one occasion with as little as ten high.

Anyway, the tight player was isolating the calling station alot, but, he was throwing in isolation raises, with low suited connectors. Against a player who might fold, that might be a good idea, but against this player, it wasn't because you were going to have to showdown to beat him. Even if it was just a curiosity call, you still had to have a hand that could beat him, and unimproved low suited connectors just don't have that much showdown value, so he was getting called and losing, in situations where most of the time the hand wouldn't have gone to showdown. He didn't adjust his game for the nature of his opponent, and it cost him a lot of money.

Your statistics, could match a good players profile exactly, but if you are using the wrong mix of hands to get that profile, then you are probably not going to have the same results as that good player.

Finally some more good news. This forum is a great place for getting those problems diagnosed and getting your game on track, (if indeed it is off track) or to figure out that you are playing well, but just running horribly.

Post some hands, join some other discussions, and you will probably be running better in the future.

[ArtVandelay]

[ QUOTE ]
Now lets take a little deeper look. Ok, lets test the assumption that you are a 1.5 bb/100 player at this limit.

If that were true, your expectation over 25000 hands would be about 375 Big bets, instead you are down 125, a shortfall of 500. If your SD/ 100 was 15, then the expected standard deviation over 25000 hands would be:

SQRT( 250*15*15) or 237. That means that your shortfall over the last 25000 hands would be almost 2 Standard deviations. In other words, there is probably a less than 1% chance that you are a 1.5 BB / 100 player with that losing stretch.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is way wrong. First, doing two standard deviations or worse below average should happen a little more than 2% of the time, not 1%. Additionally, you are focusing on one particular bad run and ignoring the fact that OP built his roll from micro stakes. The more hands OP played, the more likely he would experience a streak like this at some point.

OP, limit is a sick game. Even the best players have losing streaks over 25k hands every once in a while. Stick with it!

[five4suited]

along with the usual "standard," I would advise you to ignore your pride and go back to 2-4. Beat up on your competition for a little while to get your confidence back. If you can't bring yourself to do that, play a single table of 3-6 -- like you bought in with the last of your roll. IMO, when it comes to small stakes, a lot of times the reason you're losing is a lack of concentration, or focus, or overconfidence. good luck.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
Over 25,000 hands I have been averaging -.5BB/100hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I went through a downswing that was probably similar to this in December 2005. I dropped ~300 bbs in 8,000 hands, so if you were to pick the right 25,000 hand interval around that free-fall I'm sure you could get it to look like -0.5 bb/100 over 25k.

It sucked at the time, but I feel like I'm a stronger for having gotten through it.

Try taking a week or so off. Sometimes taking a little time to psychologically reboot your system helps a lot.

[Harv72b]

As Bob T intimated, don't overdo the statistics. You can compile "perfect" stats and still be a godawful player...focus on your own decision-making and on incorporating reads into your play, and the stats will take care of themselves. Keep in mind that CallMeIshmael used a compilation of many winning small stakes players to come up with those numbers, and that there were often pretty wide disparities among those players.

Secondly, and I don't want to open up a whole "the sky is falling" panic, the games have gotten noticeably tougher over the past month. At least, they have in my own experience...I'd grown used to whipping up on the godawful players at Party for an insane win rate, but in the post-UIGEA world I'll admit that I've been struggling to adapt to the tighter, more passive full ring games on Full Tilt and PokerStars. I don't know if this applies to you or not, but I'd imagine that a lot of long-term winners are suddenly finding out that we aren't really as good as we thought we were.

The standard advice is always true...read these forums, post some of your hands, and participate actively in the discussions. Review your sessions, not just your stats, and look carefully at the individual hands. If it helps, keep notepad or even a pen & paper handy while you're playing, and jot down a quick reminder whenever you run into a difficult or interesting decision during a hand. That, of course, is assuming that you aren't already an active member of the forum who created a new screenname for this post. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Every player here has gone through something similar to what you are now, or if they haven't yet then they will. Take some time off if that will help clear your mind, or maybe change things up and give O8 a brief shot or something. Just remember that you've obviously been doing something right all this time in order to build that bankroll up. Probably as not as right as you could have done, but none of us are perfect. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if this applies to you or not, but I'd imagine that a lot of long-term winners are suddenly finding out that we aren't really as good as we thought we were.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can speak for me here. I am guilty of playing a lot of 'cruise control' poker this year and that just is not going to cut it anymore. Time to answer the wake up call.

[ohgodthissux]

Thanks for the respons guys, Harv you called it I am an active member of this forum already.

This month has just felt like a brutal fight, being knocked off my feet so many nights that I feel sick. I do believe I am a winning player as I follow all the logic in posts and have had great past success. However I could have handled this downswing better and I will be more prepared for the next time. The fact is that at this moment I am not playing my best game as I feel physically ill betting and raising with made hands that I expect to be drawn out on. I have lost most of my confidence even though objectively I can say that most of the downswing is a result of negative variance.

I am taking some time off from the game to persue another venture. When I have the time I am going to reread a couple books. When I'm ready I'm going to enter back into the game at brick and morter. Throw around some chips and feel good about the game again.

As for the games getting tougher, I really don't know about that. Everyone from aParty it seems have come to Full Tilt and it is not difficult to sit down at four table each with three or four 30-40 VPIP guys at the right time of night.

It's just so goddamn frustrating typing this, I know I can beat these games, the drawouts are just effecting me way too much right now. My attitude has always been the correct one - glad to see a player draw out on me, that's dead money in the pot for the next hand. But during this swing I get angry and this anger causes me to play like crap.

I thank all posters for their excellent help in building my game and I will continue to look here for help in the future. But I need a break. I already can't wait to come back.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I can beat these games, the drawouts are just effecting me way too much right now. My attitude has always been the correct one - glad to see a player draw out on me, that's dead money in the pot for the next hand. But during this swing I get angry and this anger causes me to play like crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Been there, done that. To the tune of two 200 BB downswings in the past 45 days. I think that during one 3 hour session I counted 7 losses to runner runner "draws". To the point where I considered making a post like this myself. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Sarge85]

Bob, your a stud, and the board (since I just apparently nominated myself as Speaker of The Board) is grateful to have you post here.

Thanks

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]