weird preflop spot with short stack, 2500 NL

[ArtVandelay]

Maybe this is boring, but I really didn't know what to do here.

Monday's 2500 NLH WSOP event, middle of eighth level. 99 get paid and there are about 200 left. I had moved to the table an orbit earlier and folded every hand but one, the hand before this one where I shoved UTG with AKo and picked up the blinds plus antes. The preflop raiser seemed LAG, and the cold-caller had done nothing noteworthy.


SB (30k)
Hero/BB (7k)
HJ (50k)

blinds 400/800, 100 antes
HJ opens for 2200, SB calls, Hero has J9o in the BB and ???

[registrar]

Shoving has to be +EV given the amount in the pot even though you'll never fold out both, you'll certainly fold out one unless they are fully loaded. An SnG could be good too. I think you need to give us a better read on SB. I'd assume he's CC-ing speculative hands and monsters but reraising AJ/AQ type stuff. Obviously, going for an SnG is a disaster if he ever leads the flop.

Edit: and some indication of how tight the table is and how big stacks in front are seeing as when you fold here you have no resteal FE and are looking at push-folding from now on.

[0evg0]

fold quickly

[nath]

Meh, a shove with 7k might work live but probably won't. I'd do it if I had 12k.

I'm not too worried about SB. Live players are far more straightforward and nobody is trying to trap with AA.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, a shove with 7k might work live but probably won't.
...

Live players are far more straightforward and nobody is trying to trap with AA.

[/ QUOTE ]


The pot's 6300 which is what we've got behind (unsure whether the 7k is before or after we've posted). If part two of the quote is correct, then it doesn't matter whether part one is also true. I mean, if we shove here, it's on the understanding that HJ has to fold most of his raising range and what he doesn't fold, he has to isolate, so SB has to fold almost all of his CC-ing range. If HJ folds, SB then calls with anything he's already called with. We're never going to fold out both but with so much in the pot and the squeeze effect meaning that while we always get one call, we very rarely get two, this is +EV. Difficult to tell whether it's sufficiently +EV to be worth the risk that we bust very often here, but I'd imagine that we can't rely on more +EV spots coming up with an M of 3 if we fold.

The only thing that bothers me IF we discount SB slowplaying is that HJ is presumably ready to call a BB resteal here when he makes the raise.

[betgo]

Easy fold. You have little FE and you are probably behind.

[WarDekar]

Fold. No FE. If you had like... 15BB I could see it, but as it stands you're definitely getting a caller and you could be way behind here.

You still have plenty of opening FE so I say fold and hope you get to open-push at some point before the next orbit, hopefully if you can get a couple chances to steal (or a legit hand) you can build your stack up to 15BB so you can actually have a stack big enough to make a squeeze like this.

[JayPez]

Before squeeze Pot 2200 + 2200 + 1800 = 6200.

HJ = lag so lets put him on 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,87o,76o 40%

SB = medium hands he doesn’t want to 3bet fold???
TT-88,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,KJo+,Qjo 6.2%

After squeeze pot 6200 + 6200 = 12400.

HJ isolates reraises with 99+,AQs+,AQo+ 5.1%

And he does this (5.1/40 * 100) 12.8% of the time.

Your 27% vs that range.

The sb will be getting better then 2:1 so hes calling ~ 100% of the time with that range and your 32% equity vs it.

Was gonna do more math but its not close enough to bother

Fold.

[registrar]

Of course we're getting a caller. Of course we're behind. That's not the point.

I would suggest that you will find shoving here substantially +EV assuming HJ will reshove with, at the loosest 88+, AQ+ and that SB will fold anything short of TT+, AK in that instance and, if HJ folds, will call with his whole CC-ing range. Given that we have an M of 3 after folding, I don't think it's a given that we'll get a more +EV spot before our next BB and this is an opportunity to nearly triple up, if we get one caller, to a stack that is playable.

If we're open shoving optimally because we have FE, you need to factor in the fact that we're winning small pots that leave us in the same zone or getting called when we're behind or not getting action on the our big hands.

In these situations, when faced with a +EV situation this short, you need to consider whether, this short, your likelihood of encountering another +EV situation within a very limited number of hands.

Cliff notes: there are a [censored] of chips in the pot, there's likely to be an overlay - you need a good argument to fold here not simply you have no FE and you're getting called.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Before squeeze Pot 2200 + 2200 + 1800 = 6200.

HJ = lag so lets put him on 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,87o,76o 40%

SB = medium hands he doesn’t want to 3bet fold???
TT-88,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,KJo+,Qjo 6.2%

After squeeze pot 6200 + 6200 = 12400.

HJ isolates reraises with 99+,AQs+,AQo+ 5.1%

And he does this (5.1/40 * 100) 12.8% of the time.

Your 27% vs that range.

The sb will be getting better then 2:1 so hes calling ~ 100% of the time with that range and your 32% equity vs it.

Was gonna do more math but its not close enough to bother

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what's required, even if I wouldn't profess to understand it [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I still can't see how, given that HJ folds, say, 80% of his raising range and, when that happens, SB calls with 100% of his calling range this cannot be close?