100NL - KT two pair vs 2+2er

[gir]

25/16/1.6 over a fair sample. Villain is 2+2 (and quite good, albeit a tad passive imo) and knows what I am capable of, but neither of us try to exclusively make money off the other because we both know that that's what the fish at the table are for. I'm 22/19/3 or something similar, but the main point is not in our stats, but that we both know ABC poker, and I could be double-barreling with a single pair, two, a set, air...Essentially ATC. However, villain doesn't call down light, so I figured him for AJ because he didn't raise me on the turn but flat-called. If he had a set, he would've reacted on the flop or turn. If he had the nuts, the same thing. Given all these factors, do we like a river bet acting as a value/blocker or is the optimal move to check/call (or fold?) given villain's lack of propensity to call down light?

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.50/$1 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

<font color="black">Hero (SB): $102.85</font>
<font color="black">BB: $218.59</font>
UTG: $179
CO: $90.55
BTN: $110.35

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, BB calls $3

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($8) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, BB calls $6

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($20) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14</font>, BB calls $14

<font color="black">River:</font> ($48) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $26</font>

[jordiepop]

id play first three streets the same, not sure what i do on the river.

[tozzy]

SN of villain might help. c/c this river and induce bluffs from AQ- or missed draws.

[gir]

I can tell you this. He's checking all his worse hands behind and value betting aces up or better. He doesn't have a set because he's reraising me pre w/TT/AA/KK. And he doesn't have AK. Leaving AJ, AT, KT and mayyyyyybe A9. Knowing villain has one of those holdings, how do we play the river?

[tozzy]

i dont get this. if you include AQ (for whatever reason you did not), there is one hand we split, 3 hands we win and one hand we loose to. you say he checks his worse hands behind but bets with 4, 3 of them we beat? wtf is wrong about c/c here?

[AllYouWantToBe]

[ QUOTE ]
id play first three streets the same, not sure what i do on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] make you do anything else on the river if you like the first 3 streets?

[josh_x]

i play it all the same

[gir]

tozzy: He's going to be 3-betting AQ.

Allyouwanttobe: What comes on the river is of no consequence. It's the fact that he called the turn. If he's calling the turn, odds are, I'm marginally ahead or marginally behind.

AJ, AT, KT, A9.

Out of those four hands, I beat two, tie one, and lose to one. If I bet the river like that, AJ and A9 are folding. The only hands possibly calling are AT and KT.

So, I'm banking he has AJ, A9 and KT (75% chance by my logic) and that he'll either call with the first two or fold the last one.

[gir]

Come on! I've provided a really detailed analysis on what he could potentially have!

He's calling me with AT and possibly KT.
He's folding AJ and A9.

Knowing that I have potential fold equity only against the exact same hand I have (but not even that much necessarily), is there value in betting?

[aislephive]

Either bet/fold or check fold. He will never have a hand to bluff here. Check calling is the worst line you can take, better hands will bet and own you but if he has AJ/AQ or something he'll check the river behind like always but will often call a river bet. The only decision is how much to bet. I'd bet slightly more on the river, but it looks fine all in all.