under repped flush, should i keep it that way?

[b33nz]

villain is a decent player. not good, but not terrible. he knows im aggro. we both have over 200 BBs which is the main reason i played my hand so passively. im assuming his most likely hands are a smaller flush or a mid overpair to the flop (88-JJ) with 7-x and complete air mixed into it once in a while. how's my line?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$2/$4 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $555.00
BB: $970.05
UTG: $394.00
<font color="black">Hero (MP): $947.20</font>
CO: $388.00
BTN: $1,263.20

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $14.00, SB folds, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($34) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $25.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $90.00</font>, Hero calls $65.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($214) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $120.00</font>, Hero calls $120.00

<font color="black">River:</font> ($454) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks

[axioma]

hmmm no, im betting the river every time.

[fruitypro]

I would be putting him on sth like 22-88 on the flop, along with a flush draw, overcards or sometimes total garbage.
I quite like your turn check which is obviously gonna induce a bet from the vast majority of that range (if not nearly all).

I think I c/c river (not really sure if I like c/r here) and I think leading it is too blatant that you have a made hand which obviously he wont put any more money in against unless he has a boat or a smaller flush.

[AragornX151]

My first instinct was to definitely bet here, but I actually think it's kinda an interesting hand.

The only hand that I see you stacking here is a smaller flush or maybe a lone deuce, which seems like an unlikely holding for him given that he cold called a raise on the button. AA-KK is very unlikely given the preflop lack of a reraise, but 77 and 88 would make sense (though he probably slowplays 77). Does 99-JJ call a river bet, or like A7? Probably not. So leading is unlikely to be effective against most holdings.

If he has a boat, it probably doesn't matter, though you're deep enough that you could consider folding if you think he's full. Still, his actions don't seem to jibe with a house, unless he backed into 8's full. I don't think I could ever fold here.

And if he has a medium hand, he'll probably just check it back to you. So where does the best chance to get value come from? Well, if you lead, I feel like most of his range either beats you and raises, or folds. There's just not much that calls you here unless villain is a real fish. What does 99-JJ beat?

If you check, you get a lot of checks back, but maybe air takes a final stab, or he turns the aforementioned 99-JJ into a bluff...

Honestly, I think you were much better off leading or check-raising the turn. The river seems unlikely to get you much profit no matter how you play it, and a spade on the river would have scared off any hands you beat. Am I way off here?

[AragornX151]

The more I think about it, I think I'd usually lead river small, both to give villain good pot odds and maybe induce him to come over the top thinking we're trying to buy the pot.

[Tarheel]

bet/fold &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; check/fold &gt;&gt; check/call

I think bet/fold is clearly the best of options against the average player. He will check behind with the majority of his range that you beat here. He will value the hands that beat you. And given your aggro image he will call with hands that you beat. If he's firing two shots after floating you, god bless him and take note.

[AragornX151]

The problem I have with bet/fold is that a house seems SO unlikely given the play of the hand. Does he really raise that flop with 77 or 22? It's a PERFECT flop to just call. 88 (with an outside chance of QQ) is possible, but the rest just don't work. I actually think a smaller flush is more likely, especially because the lowest spade out there is the 8...KQs, KJs are possible holdings. I don't think I can fold to a river raise here.

[AAismyfriend]

I think a house is unlikely for villian due to the way this played out, I'd expect to see a smaller flush way more often. You're hand looks like an overpair to him once you c/c the turn, so if you think he's capable of bluff raising a blocking bet on the river I like the fake blocker with the intention of calling a raise. Check/snap call river is also fine i suppose, maybe even c/r but only if you think he'll call with a worse flush, which I'm guessing is unlikely.

[UP UR IQ]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem I have with bet/fold is that a house seems SO unlikely given the play of the hand. Does he really raise that flop with 77 or 22? It's a PERFECT flop to just call. 88 (with an outside chance of QQ) is possible, but the rest just don't work. I actually think a smaller flush is more likely, especially because the lowest spade out there is the 8...KQs, KJs are possible holdings. I don't think I can fold to a river raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the assesment of the hand, I don't see villain showing up with KJ/KQs there much considering how small his turn bet is, this feels more like 87/99 looking for pot control. I still lead towards bet/folding more than bet/call. I'm just not sure he overshoves with a worse flush - maybe why c/c might be interesting - he will check behind hands you beat that he wouldn't call a bet from and might vbet his smaller flushes? Funny spot really.

[Eagles]

I like c/c. If villain has a flush he's always betting if he has a boat he's always betting. If he has three of a kind he's always betting. If he has

If he has a two pair he almost never bets or calls. If he has a bluff he will never call but will bet some of the time.