"Your dress is nice. It'll look better on my floor later."

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
Against the villain described, I would bet $1500 on the river and fold to a raise. I think his range for betting the river is weighted somewhat heavily towards JT, T8, 99 and 77 in that order.

I think you only need to check the river if the player is tougher than the one described. He will rarely bluff shove over a 35% bet, and when he does, it should be a very easy fold. This way you also get value out of his 2 pairs more effectively than shoving or checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post seems kind of wrong to me. I think betting 1/3 of the pot and then folding to a raise is generally a bad play with anything but air (and even then only if you balance it out by betting the same way with the nuts sometimes). it's going to induce a lot of bluff-raises, since your bet looks exactly like what it is, so he may actually bluff his missed hands more often than if checked to, and he may be more inclined to turn his one or even two pair hands that he would normally check behind into bluffs. whereas, when you check to him, he may suspect you are going for a check-call and check back. in other words, i think i would be more tempted to call if I bet 1/3 pot and he raised than I would if I just checked to him and he put in a normal looking value-bet.

[Charlie Work]

"MP is pretty ABC overall, running like 23/13. I have yet to see him bluff."

[TurnedAndRivered]

[ QUOTE ]
"MP is pretty ABC overall, running like 23/13. I have yet to see him bluff."

[/ QUOTE ]

That being said, do we really think an ABC player did not raise T8 on the turn when so many action killer cards can roll off on the river? Or Did not raise the flop with TT? I think we can eliminate T8 and TT as not having these hands often enough to really make a difference in the long run.
JT makes sense as a call on the flop and turn -- just barely, and definitely a bet on the river.

But I like 99/77 much more, particularly 99 as that explains the betting on the flop, however i think 99 raises on the turn, as does any hand that makes the straight because so many action killer cards roll off on the river.

So all in all i think I just convinced myself to call.. I wouldn't be surprised unbelievably surprised to see 89 suited.

[quirkasaurus]

TT isn't in his range? or JJ?
all-in on flop, right?

[TurnedAndRivered]

[ QUOTE ]
TT isn't in his range? or JJ?
all-in on flop, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying TT isn't possible at all.. But on that flop, from an ABC player, TT raises, what better flop can you hope for with TT? JJ is also possible but same result on the flop imo.
Now on the turn, TT gets worried and says '[censored] why didn't i raise the flop' and should know with pretty well certainty that they're behind and drawing to an 8 or T which could screw them anyway considering 89 is a very plausible part of Hero's range. albeit odly played, 89 could go either way.

So I'm not saying it's not impossible, I'm saying the action doesn't warrant us folding because of the possibility of TT or even JJ. If it were against a non ABC player, maybe I can see it.

given the action I can see JT easier then JJ or TT

[Scansion]

Wtf, this river is such a bet/fold spot unless you've really got a great read.

[Rojosox]

i like a min raise on the river and i definitely minbet the flop.