100NL defend blinds with AJ

[Panic__NL]

I 3bet from the blinds with AJo, the button steals about 40%. I get called by the big blind, the button folds.
I make a cbet on a not so great flop and I plan to check/fold the turn if called and unimproved. But then the turn gives me a flush draw.
The big blind is 26/10/0.9 over 148 hands.
I am 21/19/3.


Is shoving an option here?


iPoker No-Limit Texas Hold'em (NL100), $1.00 BB (5 handed) SilverKitty Hand History converter by www.pokeronline.com.ua

CO ($109.5)
Button ($146.15)
Hero ($99.4)
BB ($98.5)
MP3 ($26.81)

Hero: Post SB $0.50
BB: Post BB $1.00

Preflop:
Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>
Button Raise $3.5
Hero Raise $12
BB Call $11.5
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>

Flop:($28.5) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]<font color="#0030DD">(2 players)</font>
Hero Bet $20
BB Call $20

Turn:($68.5) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]<font color="#0030DD">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?? (PSB behind)

[Irishman07]

shove away

[bigbluffben]

I shove here all day and take my chances vs. 55-99

[bigbabyjesus]

I would check/fold the flop. His range for cold-calling you there is not going to fold that flop.

As played, I'd shove the turn. It's a great turn for you, giving an overcard that may scare off JJ or lower, and giving you back up equity just in case he calls.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
I shove here all day and take my chances vs. 55-99

[/ QUOTE ]

You realize button cold-called and isn't the pfr, right?

[bigbluffben]

I thought the button folded pre... I see lots of people coldcalling two bets with 55-99 trying to hit sets and with the flop he def calls with that range and on the turn a shove might make him fold that same range

[Panic__NL]

ok did some math.

if we assume he cold calls with all pairs and AKs, he will call the flop with 33+,AsKs (67 combos)and he will call a shove with 33,77,JJ+ and AsKs (31 combos).
Against his calling range on the turn I have 15.8% equity.

Board: 7h 4s 3s Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.806% 15.81% 00.00% 153 0.00 { AdJs }
Hand 1: 84.194% 84.19% 00.00% 815 0.00 { JJ+, 77, 33, AsKs }

He will call the flop with 67 combos, of which he will call the turn with 31 and fold 36 combos.

If he folds I pick up the pot of 68.
If he calls I will win 134 15% of the time = 20.
If he calls I will lose 66 85% of the time = 56.
If he calls I will have a net result of 20-56= -36.

36 of 67 combos = 54% he will fold the turn shove
31 of 67 combos = 46% he will call the turn shove

so 0.54 * 68 + 0.46 * -36 = +20

If all assumptions are correct a shove is +EV.

any comments?

[Kinbor]

i doubt he coldcalls 33-99 in a spot like this, maybe even folds TT if you're not overaggressive pf. most of his range has you crushed (i also doubt he has AsKs since he would probably just shove the flop since he has no hand so far and is better off, if you fold). i think this is mostly big pairs that come along.

Q is a great card, but changes nothing if he is decent (because Q changes little against his pf calling range). and it looks even more fishy if you push on the Q turn, because you probably would not play QQ/KK/AA this way.

i would c/f on the flop and take this line if you've seen him make some loose calls pf (some regulars do that at NL100). i don't know about the turn, i would c/f and hope for a spade or something, because if doesnt have QQ, he will check behind hands like JJ (which you have good equity against) and put you all-in with QQ+ (where you cant call profitably). i certainly wouldnt just shove the turn if i decided i will semibluff. i'd make a sizeable bet so when he shoves i have to call. i don't like pushes like this because it usually means that you are on a draw and would like him to fold, because [almost] no one plays sets and overpairs like that.

[bigbluffben]

I don't see any reason why he wouldn't coldcall with 55-99... Ive def seen it a million times... but the Q is a great card cause he might have our range with KQ AQ QJ but about 75% of the time i'll shove here with QQ+ with a spade and a set just to mix it up cause people will come up with a reason to call