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  #1  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:18 PM
Acevader Acevader is offline
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Default NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

Villain is Bil Ivy and he is: 17/9/1.4

Bil generally doesn't seen to tangle with me much so I'm guessing he largely looks to avoid me unless he has a hand. Thoughts on my fold?

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $95
UTG+1: $213.65
UTG+2: $202
Hero (MP1): $260
MP2: $203.35
CO: $276.35
BTN: $23.05
SB: $196
BB: $229.75

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2, UTG+2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10</font>, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $8

Flop: ($23) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $16</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $32</font>, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($87) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $65</font>, UTG+1 calls $65

River: ($217) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG+1 bets $106.65 and is All-In</font>, Hero folds

Results: $217 Pot ($3 Rake)
UTG+1 mucked and WON $214 (+$107 NET)
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  #2  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:33 PM
Berge20 Berge20 is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

He's got to feel you'll bet the turn very frequently if he's holding a true monster. Otherwise, he's got ~170 back and a ~90 pot on the river to try and get value out of you.

Odd line though and he certainly can't believe he's got much FE.

Why are you betting the turn if you're folding the river?
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  #3  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:38 PM
Jeff76 Jeff76 is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you betting the turn if you're folding the river?

[/ QUOTE ]My thought as well. Were you going to fold to a turn c/r?

I think you're beat, but I'm not folding for this amount.
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  #4  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:42 PM
AllTheCheese AllTheCheese is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

So sick on river. I call but expect to be beat more often than not. I think $65 on the turn is a little excessive. There aren't any prominent draws, and at this point (the turn that is) it looks strongly like he has a weaker PP.
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  #5  
Old 11-30-2007, 09:30 PM
Acevader Acevader is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

I guess $50 on the turn would have done but I felt that he probably had 1010-JJ and knew that if I could get him to call the $65 he'd relut-a-call a river push. That was the plan. However, I never in a million years expected him to lead river into me. He can't think he has much FE and there are few draws that missed. I therefore think it's a value shove and I really can't see him value-shoving 1010-JJ in this spot.

I realize after making the turn bet I am committed however to blindly not change your opinion on commitment in the face of new information is poor play and his river lead tells me I'm beat a massive proportion of the time.

I asked him about the hand afterwards and he claimed quads 9s. That line would make sense and I have no reason to doubt him.
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  #6  
Old 11-30-2007, 11:13 PM
Jeff76 Jeff76 is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

[ QUOTE ]
I realize after making the turn bet I am committed however to blindly not change your opinion on commitment in the face of new information is poor play and his river lead tells me I'm beat a massive proportion of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]This is all true, but it should also tell you something about your turn bet, as this really isn't any different from a turn check/raise.
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  #7  
Old 12-01-2007, 10:50 AM
flytrap flytrap is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

I don't see how someone with those stats could have TT or JJ. He didn't raise PF, which I'm 99% certain a 17/9 would have done, unless they were mixing it up for some reason. You have to check the turn here, and most likely call the river.
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  #8  
Old 12-01-2007, 11:33 AM
QTip QTip is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

[ QUOTE ]
If you are not willing to stack off on the turn (which is the same as stacking off on the river), then I don't think you should bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #9  
Old 12-01-2007, 11:51 AM
Acevader Acevader is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

[ QUOTE ]
If you are not willing to stack off on the turn (which is the same as stacking off on the river), then I don't think you should bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I am willing to stack off on the turn. If he c/r me again then I would reluctantly call. I have seen players make that play from time to time with a hand such as 1010 or JJ on this board. They panic that the flop raise was called and check to see what hero does. I then bet which commits them to the pot so they decide there and then whether they want to play for stacks with 1010-JJ. If they conclude they are happy to play they just get it in now so they can't doubt themselves if an ace or king hits the river. For this reason I'd reluctantly stack off on the turn after I've bet.

However, once they have called the turn bet and led the river they have taken a completely different line and one that, IMHO, provides me with additional information. 1010-JJ never takes this line IMHO because the river was as safe as they come. Therefore if he bets 1010-JJ he only gets called if tied or beat but crucially takes away any opportunity for hero to bet/bluff a lesser/non hand. The correct play at this river with 1010-JJ would be to check-call as a timid hero might even check behind with a higher pair. To lead the river when he clearly has no fold equity has to be for value and therefore has to have QQ beat. A check raise by him on the turn is usually going to be a similar strength hand (i.e. one that beats QQ) but may also be 1010-JJ just 'getting them in now'. For that reason calling a c/r AI on turn is different to calling a push.

I expect you'll come back and say 1010-JJ never c/r this turn. FWIW I consider myself a reasonable player and I do that sometimes. Recently I raised AK and against a tight opponent took an Axx wet flop. I led villain raised and I called. The river bricked the draws so I was really only beat by sets or a silly two pair. I didn't plan the hand to well and checked to villain who bet committing himself. I thought for a bit and concluded that he'd have to show me a set and so I put my money in there and then so that even if a draw hit the river I'd not bottle it. I don't view this as a value c/r as such (although some lesser hands may call) but rather an 'administrative c/r' (i.e. the stacks are going in so lets do it now). Unbelievably villain folded AK (and I believe him) because he figured I'd never come over the top of his commitment bet with anything less than AK. LOL, an added bonus I never expected from taking this line.

I'm expressing myself so badly here. I hope you can figure out what I'm trying to say and why I think committing on this turn is different to committing on this river. Finally, on the turn you still have one shot at two outs - clutching at straws but it all helps.
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  #10  
Old 12-01-2007, 12:11 PM
Jeff76 Jeff76 is offline
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Default Re: NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

[ QUOTE ]
But I am willing to stack off on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]I think this is your problem. I don't think you want to get it in on the turn. You are way behind his range with hands that he'll be willing to get it in on the turn with. Sure he MAY have TT/JJ and just be making a desperate final gasp at trying to win the pot, but in reality you are much more likely to be facing the stronger portion of his range.

[ QUOTE ]
To lead the river when he clearly has no fold equity has to be for value and therefore has to have QQ beat.

[/ QUOTE ]This is likely true, but so is

"To check/raise the turn when he clearly has no fold equity has to be for value and therefore has to have QQ beat."

[ QUOTE ]
I expect you'll come back and say 1010-JJ never c/r this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]Against your range TT/JJ SHOULDN'T c/r the turn for the same reasons it shouldn't call and then push the river. Which is different from saying he'll never do it- people do things all the time they shouldn't. That's where the profit is in poker.

But you really don't want to rely on villain making a bad play (or knowing he's committed and taking the "aw screw it- let's get the chips in" line) to get value from your hand.

I think you are failing to see how well defined your hand is and how easy it is for villain to play against you perfectly now. In that situation you really want to exercise pot control, because villain is only going to build a big pot with you when he has the best of it.
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