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#1
10-25-2007, 08:21 PM
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Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
Lets hear some opinions for the next week and month. Use the DXY or your favorite pair.
EUR/USD. I think the dollar bottoms out next week after the coming rate cut, especially if we get 50 rather than 25. I'd say 1.45 might be a good spot to try and catch a major reversal in the dollar. Thoughts? 
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#3
10-26-2007, 01:59 AM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
[ QUOTE ]
Lets hear some opinions for the next week and month. Use the DXY or your favorite pair. EUR/USD. I think the dollar bottoms out next week after the coming rate cut, especially if we get 50 rather than 25. I'd say 1.45 might be a good spot to try and catch a major reversal in the dollar. Thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] Why would it bottom out and why would it reverse? I think it keeps dropping if there's a 50 bps cut. Maybe thrashes where it is on a 25 bps cut.
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#5
10-26-2007, 12:36 PM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
Dollar has another 50% to drop on the USDX.
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#6
10-26-2007, 04:06 PM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
[ QUOTE ]
trends dont last forever, thats why theyre called trends and why theyre even possible. sheessh. [/ QUOTE ] Trends keep going until something stops them. That's why they're called trends. Sheesh.
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#7
10-28-2007, 12:50 PM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
[ QUOTE ]
trends dont last forever, thats why theyre called trends and why theyre even possible. sheessh. [/ QUOTE ] isnt it more likely that interest rates will decrease? isnt it more likely that the gov will keep spending more than it takes in? if this is the case, why is the dollar going to recover? you can't just say its going to go up because it is down. that doesn't make any sense.
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#8
10-29-2007, 01:24 PM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
Added a second EUR/USD bullet at 1.4420. Average position at 1.4401. This is going to be an uncomfortable ride until the end of the week.
Sure would make a sweet candlestick pattern if we stuck right here for awhile.
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#9
10-29-2007, 02:38 PM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] trends dont last forever, thats why theyre called trends and why theyre even possible. sheessh. [/ QUOTE ] isnt it more likely that interest rates will decrease? isnt it more likely that the gov will keep spending more than it takes in? if this is the case, why is the dollar going to recover? you can't just say its going to go up because it is down. that doesn't make any sense. [/ QUOTE ] currencies aren't a 1 way trade. the dollar could TANK but if the euro tanks by more then long the dollar/euro would be a good bet. OP is saying that after the fed cuts again, it is not likely to be much more cutting and that the ECB will be next to cut. since interest rate diffs & growth diffs make up the vast majority of currency excess returns, havnig the US stay steady after the next cut while the ECB lowers rates means the dollar will "bottom out" and then reverse since the interest rate diff will decrease. i, however, don't think the ECB will be lowering rates anytime in the immediate future with germany powering away as it has (and its CPI still ticking up). thats why i think this bet is far better on the pound than the euro. also, the pound has further to fall in terms of interest rates without being inflationary once the credit bubble fails to continually increase gdp at the rate of the recent past. Barron
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#10
10-29-2007, 04:00 PM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
[ QUOTE ]
i, however, don't think the ECB will be lowering rates anytime in the immediate future with germany powering away as it has (and its CPI still ticking up). [/ QUOTE ] Can u expand on teh germany part? I'm not sure I follow. Most of my normal course of reading and work doesn't lead me to German info.
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