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  #1  
Old 09-19-2007, 08:33 AM
Msrmek Msrmek is offline
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Default How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

Ok lets say I'm playing small stakes full ring hold'em. How many hands do I need to have plaid to see am I bad, average or good small stakes hold'em player? 100k, 500k or even more hands?

And how should my average 100 hands / bb won look like?

Thank you.
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  #2  
Old 09-19-2007, 08:36 AM
Mike Kelley Mike Kelley is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

I've seen 300k break even streaks in winning players graphs. so 500k is my guess.
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  #3  
Old 09-19-2007, 09:00 AM
Renton Renton is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

about 10k hands to see if u are a good or bad player

about infinity hands to determine ur winrate
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  #4  
Old 09-19-2007, 10:07 AM
Msrmek Msrmek is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

Thank you.

Sorry for posting on wrong section..didn't notice this is NL section.
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  #5  
Old 09-19-2007, 10:18 AM
1p0kerboy 1p0kerboy is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

[ QUOTE ]
about 10k hands to see if u are a good or bad player

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this.

I've had some atrocious 10k samples.

I think when I was playing around with some calculations a few months back I determined that I could be +/- a ptBB every month and that was one standard deviation. I play about 100k hands a month.

Of course, the smaller stakes you play the less of a sample you need (because your expectation is going to be higher).

If I had to generically come up with some numbers that were a close fit for everybody:

100k should tell you if you are winning or not
300k should tell you your winrate within 1ptBB
3mil should tell you your winrate within .1ptBB
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  #6  
Old 09-19-2007, 10:36 AM
jack frost jack frost is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

I think renton meant if you play 10k hands and and nothing out of the ordinary happens like having a hellish run or running very bad and you win 2bb/100 on can assume he is a decent player.

10k is a small sample but you can kinda get idea by looking at your stats. I think 100k hands would be a more true tell sign though.
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  #7  
Old 09-19-2007, 10:42 AM
Renton Renton is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

what im saying is that it should be pretty obvious in 10k hands whether u are getting pawned or pawning. You have to be honest with yourself and realize when you are being outplayed.
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  #8  
Old 09-19-2007, 10:52 AM
ActionStan ActionStan is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

I agree that you can't have very much insight into your win rate in 10K hands, but I do think you can come to some pretty quick judgments about the general quality of your play from 10K as long as your game isn't in transition. For example, you could post a players summary line and position stats without win rates and pretty quickly have an idea if his win rates will be good or bad over time. 10K hands is plenty to converge on your general style of play. You 100% right, though, that it doesn't have very much bearing at all on you long term win rate.
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  #9  
Old 09-19-2007, 10:53 AM
RiverMustelid RiverMustelid is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

Fair point. You can't start at a level and say I've had 10k hands of -4PTBB but I need to play 500k hands to determine if I'm really a good player or not. You have probably 80% confidence you're not, so you'd better move down or do an ArtieRufio and blow your cash proving youself.
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  #10  
Old 09-19-2007, 02:07 PM
threads13 threads13 is offline
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Default Re: How many hands needs to be played to see are you good or not?

I think this will help you more than anything we will say.
Ed Miller Article
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