Running It Twice and Insurance

[oldmangrimis]

I know what it mean and how to run it twice but what effect does it have on the outcome and why do players do it and how did it get started
InsuranceI have no clue what this mean, when to player are all in whatdoes it mean when one player offer another Insurance in poker
I can figger that he could be like BJ insurance but how do you fig out the odds each hand is diffrent

any help will be great

[iillllii]

running it twice reduces variance. The odds are the same each time, you just smooth out the results a little bit. It is most desirable if you are playing over your head and the suck out would ruin you.

Expand the concept, say you can run it a million times. With pocket kings against AQ, you're going to lose about 28% of the time. If you run it once, you'll either lose the whole pot or win the whole pot. If you run it a million times, you'll win ~72% of the pot, period. Running it twice doesn't get you this close to the average, but it will smooth it out some.

Insurance is a similar concept where you get $X to end the hand right there. In the above example, you know you should average 72% of the pot, but on this particular hand, you could lose the whole thing. Instead, the house pays you 65% of the pot hand and it is over. You are happy because you didn't bust out and got some profit that is close to what you deserved in the hand, whereas the house is happy because they gain 7% equity right there, and can take a high volume of these bets to guarantee themselves profit.

[Sojumaster]

As for running twice, If you ask to run it twice, make sure you return the favor later in the session. Of course that should go without saying. Once you start running it twice or three times, you leave yourself vulnerable to future multi-runnings.

I personally do not subscribe to running the board twice.

[Alex-db]

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you leave yourself vulnerable to future multi-runnings.

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What would be the problem with that?

[qpw]

[ QUOTE ]
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you leave yourself vulnerable to future multi-runnings.

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What would be the problem with that?

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Isn't that blatantly obvious?

[Alex-db]

It doesn't affect your EV at all, and it lowers your variance. To what are you vulnerable?

So no, its not obvious.

[mvdgaag]

As posted before, running it twice only makes the chance on a split pot bigger. EV remains unchanged. In the long run it doesn't influence anything.

Insurance is letting someone off for a bit worse price than they get in the long run. Say we go allin and you have 28% equity.... I let you keep 25% of the pot without showdown. You are glad since you are going to bust 72% of the time and now you have some chips left. I am happy, because I just made a little more than I should have in the long run and didn't give you a chance to suck out.

It's mathematically ok to give insurance, but never to take it (unless you have no bankroll left if you lose and have to eat, but in that case you did something else wrong). Most pokerplayers don't do insurance either way, I believe.

[WildThought]

It is absolutely incorrect to say that Running more then once is the same EV. That is myth it is not. Its obvious, AA vs. 33. AA are 80/20. Well if we hit the 3 on the first run it DOES NOT GO BACK IN THE DECK! Therefore to hit it a second time you only have one out. Therefore, running it twice gives you 6 to 1 instead of 4 to 1. THis is the most extreme example but it is the same wiith flush draws and straight draws if you hit you are missing an out. I play in a NYC club and have thought about this a lot. The only time you should do business(run it more then once) is when you are AHEAD not behind. Can anyone argue with this logic?

[deucethree]

You don't even need to know math to see running it twice doesn't effect your results.

In the AA vs 33 example you know it's about 80/20. Just look at it this way. 4 cards are dead so there's 48 left. If you run the whole board you can do it about 10 times (assume no burn). In those 10 times you'll hit both 3's, usually on seperate hands, and usually win those hands. So the majority of the time you'll win 2 of 10. Occasionaly you'll make quads and just win that one. Occasionaly you'll win with a straight or, if you have different suits, a flush. Just the rough look at cards in the deck and what makes your hand shows you your equity is around 20% no matter how many times you run it.

[mvdgaag]

You are incorrect WildThought. Even though the cards remain out of the deck EV stays exactly the same...

Look at this simplified example:

We have a 2 street, one card per street game with a 12 card deck (four each of Aces, Kings and queens)...

I have KQ. You have AQ. The flop is K. I go allin. You can only win by spiking an A on the second and last street. So you have 3 outs out of 7 remaining cards. Or 3/7 equity... Let's say the the blinds were high enough to make this a call for you.

Now lets see what happens if we run it twice.

You win by winning it twice. The chance for this to happen is: 3/7 * 2/6 = 6/42

You lose by losing it twice. The chance for this to happen is: 4/7 * 3/6 = 12/42

The other 24/42 we have a split pot. This is correct, because: 3/7 * 4/6 * 2 = 24/42...

So you expect to win (6 - 12) / 42 = -6/42 = -1/7 when running it twice.

And you expect to win (3 - 4) / 7 = -1/7 when running it once.

EV has not changed, the amount of losses per wins has become greater (2:1 instead of 4:3), but in return you get a lot more split pots when running it twice.

The same stuff applies to full scale holdem. I can give you proof of this, but that would get rather complicated. And I hope you intuitivey see this is so.

Hope this explains.