5/10 turn shove?

[ocklind]

I like a shove here, he'd get it in pref w/ AK so u only have to worry about KQ basically.

Shove like 80% here vs this villain, depening on ur table image

[CopTHIS]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a shove here, he'd get it in pref w/ AK so u only have to worry about KQ basically.

Shove like 80% here vs this villain, depening on ur table image

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus KK,AA to worry about. Meh, I usually give up here tbh after getting such a big flop bet called by someone like that. If there was a bit more history it could change the turn betting frequency, but I'd be more like check 80% than shove 80%. Maybe that's ultra lame, don't know.

[ocklind]

yeah very true cop. this is very player dependant and I think this kind of opponent (assuming u have a good amount of hands on him) often slowplays his AA/KK and also calls his TT-QQ. He'll probably call a 3bet w/ TT+ here, maybe, but probably not KQ? So we worry about 2 hands, AA and KK and gets TT-QQ to fold out, which all certainly may peel the flop. (he gotta fold right?). So 3 of 5 hands will fold, so it seems like a good bet.

Furthermore I like a 3bet to 120(pot) more than 130 for a variety of reasons.

1. he more often 4-bets his AA/KK when u 3bet smaller
2. your squeezes get cheaper
3. he calls with a wider range, which puts u in a better spot since u have a strong hand and posistion

thoughts!?

[Laetus]

If villain would have been a straightforward TAG this is a insta bet, isn't it?

[creative]

i thought so too

[MrHoobris]

This play is pretty borderline I'd say, but good for metagame. Running the math:

Pot Size = 705
Left to Shove = 574
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls = 920*2 = 1840

Equity when called:

Hand 0: 05.742% { AdQc }
Hand 1: 94.258% { AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, AKs, KJs+, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQs }

The range is sort of weighted to reflect that he 4bets AA/KK some of the time PF, only calls QQ/JJ 50% of the time, only AKs included since he 4bets AK so often PF, and folds KQo PF half the time. This doesn't matter so much for our equity, which will always be around 5.7%, but rather for what percentage of his range is calling the turn shove.

Let X = P(Fold)
Shove EV(0) = 705X + (1-X)(1840*0.057-574)
X = 40%

His calling range represents 2.1% of total combos. That means he needs to make it to the turn with:
2.1%/(1 - 40%) = 3.5% of hands. So if he's peeling 99-QQ (folding QQ/JJ half the time) as well as the rare flush draw, this brings his range to 3.6% and makes the shove barely profitable on its own merits.

It definitely is very close, but we need to bluff in this spot some % of the time to balance out our strong hands, so I like shoving this a significant portion of the time.

[CopTHIS]

I've not followed this through - though nice work on putting some numbers on this - but what do you mean about being roughly break-even? I mean, if hero checks he still has some value in the hand. Not a huge amount, granted, but def some.

[creative]

i take out kjs here as well as kqo from his range, and i also add a a small weight of Sc's 15% of the time (like 89s+) bc theres no way any competent player ONLY calls 3bets with such a tight range

[MrHoobris]

Yeah, that's math for the value of a shove only. If he checks behind, he has say around 8-10% equity in a 705 pot for something like EV=60-70, but then calculating the EV of all the rivers with the potential reverse implied odds/ability to valuebet aces and get paid off etc. makes it too hard to tackle.

[ocklind]

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i take out kjs here as well as kqo from his range, and i also add a a small weight of Sc's 15% of the time (like 89s+) bc theres no way any competent player ONLY calls 3bets with such a tight range

[/ QUOTE ]

A guy played 18/14 might very well do just that. play say 99+, KQs+ imo