5/10 turn shove?

[Praetor]

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

CO ($1014.00)
Hero ($918.75)
SB ($1148.00)
BB ($1355.25)
UTG ($1267.33)
MP ($1102.00)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $35</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $130</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $95.

Flop: ($275) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $215</font>, CO calls $215.

Turn: ($705) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, Hero? $574 left

Final Pot: $1852.50


villain is 18/14/3, pretty good i guess, cant remember much specific history with him
no timing tells
how oftne if ever should i be shoving turn?

[philipsaurus]

i shove here every time.

[icantfeelit]

Shooooove it

[mustmuck]

How aggro preflop is hero?

[Praetor]

19/17 or so i guess he will have me at, this is at start of a session though

[pologuy64]

I don't think its as easy as a shove as a couple people have said. Esp. on prima, yall get looked up with any king and maybe even QQ or JJ. I think you should have some type of read on this player to shove here, otherwise, it seems kinda wreckless. I def. think there are times to shove the turn, but i think you should have some type of read for doing it.

[MrHoobris]

This play is pretty borderline I'd say, but good for metagame. Running the math:

Pot Size = 705
Left to Shove = 574
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls = 920*2 = 1840

Equity when called:

Hand 0: 05.742% { AdQc }
Hand 1: 94.258% { AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, AKs, KJs+, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQs }

The range is sort of weighted to reflect that he 4bets AA/KK some of the time PF, only calls QQ/JJ 50% of the time, only AKs included since he 4bets AK so often PF, and folds KQo PF half the time. This doesn't matter so much for our equity, which will always be around 5.7%, but rather for what percentage of his range is calling the turn shove.

Let X = P(Fold)
Shove EV(0) = 705X + (1-X)(1840*0.057-574)
X = 40%

His calling range represents 2.1% of total combos. That means he needs to make it to the turn with:
2.1%/(1 - 40%) = 3.5% of hands. So if he's peeling 99-QQ (folding QQ/JJ half the time) as well as the rare flush draw, this brings his range to 3.6% and makes the shove barely profitable on its own merits.

It definitely is very close, but we need to bluff in this spot some % of the time to balance out our strong hands, so I like shoving this a significant portion of the time.

[CopTHIS]

I've not followed this through - though nice work on putting some numbers on this - but what do you mean about being roughly break-even? I mean, if hero checks he still has some value in the hand. Not a huge amount, granted, but def some.

[creative]

i take out kjs here as well as kqo from his range, and i also add a a small weight of Sc's 15% of the time (like 89s+) bc theres no way any competent player ONLY calls 3bets with such a tight range

[ocklind]

[ QUOTE ]
i take out kjs here as well as kqo from his range, and i also add a a small weight of Sc's 15% of the time (like 89s+) bc theres no way any competent player ONLY calls 3bets with such a tight range

[/ QUOTE ]

A guy played 18/14 might very well do just that. play say 99+, KQs+ imo