50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat

[Chomp]

Villain 26/16/1, 150 hands.
Hero 19/17, standard TAG, but particularly active last couple of orbits due to nice run of cards.

Stove tells me our equity against 2p and set hands is 14%, but I don't know if we can narrow his range to that.

Fwiw, I'd usually go a touch more on flop, not sure it makes much difference here.


Thanks.

.............................

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$63.40</font>)
UTG 1 (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
BTN (<font color="#0000cc">$50.40</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$57.80</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$73.69</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#777777">4 folds</font>, BB calls $1.5

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.25, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.15</font>, BB calls $3.15

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($10.55, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $19.5</font>, Hero...

[Gigglegirl]

Good fold I think.
Its either a bluff/semi bluff combo draw (Kxdd) or he has you beat.
That line of chk/call, chk/raise is invariably very strong. With Villains agg factor, I'd be leaning heavily towards 'you're beat'.
Playing for stacks with 1 pair hands post flop @ 50NL iPoker doesn't normally work out too well.

[njdoo]

I agree that this is probably a good fold due to the play having such a low aggression factor. Against someone more aggressive I would probably continue. I'm thinking I am behind here to his line. I'm feeling very confident he flopped a set or has some kind of 2 pair.

[Geordie Ramone]

I dont know if I would be folding this, surely he would be raising any set on the flop, and he would reraise KK preflop
so what are you behind here?

[hennnerz]

What about if it is a min-raise?

[munkey]

Turn b/f is fine with Baluga and all vs tight-semi-passive villian.

Given the turn card w.r.t flop board, this could be a semi-bluff combo draw like JT or kd xd - he does seem to have low agggr so a combo draws can be discounted a tad -I don't rly trust this stat over this sample though in practice I probably would @ table [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I may call the turn vs a more aggro villian and if the turn card gave a fdraw additional outs but vs this tight -neutral fold is goot. Make a note and if he does it again(esp. if showdown occurs) - I 'tend' to give tight unknowns credit 1st time.

[derosnec]

4 dollars on flop because drawy and he can think his 66/TT are good. on the turn he can't really have AK (i'd expect a pf 3bet) and i doubt he does this with KQ, even if he has a flush draw to go with it.

[munkey]

[ QUOTE ]
4 dollars on flop because drawy and he can think his 66/TT are good. on the turn he can't really have AK (i'd expect a pf 3bet) and i doubt he does this with KQ, even if he has a flush draw to go with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with derosenc (on both pts) -I struggle to find hands that improved from flop-&gt; turn that he'll do this with.

[il_martilo]

Theoretically, this is a fold but I wouldn't make too much of a habit of folding overpairs at 50NL like this. Against this particular opponent who has fairly easy to read stats, this seems like a set most of the time.

[derosnec]

yeah my view lately (given how passive most people are postflop) is this (speaking to my opponent): if you want action from me, then you have to earn it with some frequency of bluffing. but if you're going to play a passive 1 AF game with a turn c/r % of like 3 over 500 hands, don't expect action when you checkraise the turn.