Giving the long dollar trade another try

[ItalianFX]

Mr. Now is stating that he doesn't look at what <u>should</u> happen, but rather at what <u>is</u> happening. It makes sense to me.

[ArturiusX]

No [censored], get confirmation of some kind that gives you a good probability of putting in a successful trade.

[ItalianFX]

[ QUOTE ]
No [censored], get confirmation of some kind that gives you a good probability of putting in a successful trade.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's basic high probability trading. On uptrends, you wait for pullbacks and set a stop below the pullback. It's more art than science.

[kimchi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For the record, Mr. Now engages in trading trends-- not "counter" trends.

Genuine trading in genuine trends is not supported by strongly held beliefs about the validity of predictions.

The prediction idea leads to other rigid beliefs about specific future price movement, such as "the dollar has to bottom soon", "gold is overbought and must fall", etc.

The dollar might bottom.

The dollar might rise, fall, or move sideways.

ArturiusX might think Mr. Now's trading philosophy sucks, or doesn't suck, etc.

None of this matters since the dollar and ArturiusX behave as they intend to behave now, regardless of any predictions about them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't talking to you, but what you're saying makes zero sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Mr.Now is articulating one of the most fundamental psychological aspects of trading. It doesn't matter why a market is doing what it is doing. It only matters that it is doing it and for you to be on the correct side of the trade (remembering there are 3 positions to take in a trade).

Using language such as 'the market should do this...or the price has to do that' just reaffirms your biases about the market direction based on your beliefs.

You can't force the market because it will do whatever it wants regardless of your position, the percieved fundamentals, or whether or not the next losing trade will force you to throw yourself under a subway train.

This is the primary reason why I try my best to avoid watching and reading financial press. Thing is, I find it entertaining, but acting on information I get from Barrons, CNBC, WSJ, Fishead or Shoe is -EV for me.

[ArturiusX]

What you mean my shorts during 1999 was stupid?

[Shoe]

[ QUOTE ]
This is the primary reason why I try my best to avoid watching and reading financial press. Thing is, I find it entertaining, but acting on information I get from Barrons, CNBC, WSJ, Fishead or Shoe is -EV for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please post one example of -EV advice from me.

[kimchi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is the primary reason why I try my best to avoid watching and reading financial press. Thing is, I find it entertaining, but acting on information I get from Barrons, CNBC, WSJ, Fishead or Shoe is -EV for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please post one example of -EV advice from me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please read my post again carefully.

[tippy]

Ahhhh, opinions on how to trade. Seems like everyone always thinks their is best.

What is a trend to you might appear as a different situation to me. That is what makes a market. You see one trade I make and you assume that I'm not a trend follower and that I'm some type of contrarian bottom picker. Believe it our not I do both. But thanks for the trading lesson.

For some trades, you just have to take all the factors and information and determine the most likely course of action and analyze it against the risk/reward. Yes, I know I am trying to pick a turn here in the EUR/USD. I think I clearly stated that. Not all of my trades are like this one. This is one of those trades where I'm trying to catch a monster move. 95% of my trades are daytrades where I'm just following the trend taking little bites. Believe it or not, you can do both.

Kind of like picking up many little pots that nobody wants and maybe playing a big pot as a small dog. Strategy sound familiar????

There are alot of factors that suggest the herd is leaning the wrong way here. The market is pricing in rate cuts that may not be delivered.

There is a good chance this trade won't be successful. I'm defnitely a dog going against the trend here. BUT the payoff makes the play +EV, even though it doesn't agree with your "trendfollowing dogma". Kind of like calling with any two cards when the pot is offering huge odds. You probably aren't going to win, but the odds suggest that the play is +EV.

Open up your trading a little. Sometimes there are good trades out there that you are going miss with your strict "only follow the trend" approach.

As an aside, I added two lots and have the average at 1.4705. Lets see how it handles a retest of the highs.

[tippy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No [censored], get confirmation of some kind that gives you a good probability of putting in a successful trade.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's basic high probability trading. On uptrends, you wait for pullbacks and set a stop below the pullback. It's more art than science.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hey FX, you get my PM? You reach any resolution on chapter 4?

[Shoe]

[ QUOTE ]

Please read my post again carefully.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry about that, my bad!