Giving the long dollar trade another try

[ArturiusX]

I think your trading philosophy sucks. You make no mention of your timeframe, which is the most crucial aspect of whether you can pull off a profit in a counter trend trade.

[kimchi]

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That pair made really nice bottom......lets see how it acts around 1.47 and how it breaks out of this base thats forming. This is a little scary. Looks a little like a cup and handle forming.

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You said you already have around 30% of your position (long UDS in some form, I assume), but the set-ups you've refered to haven't yet been confirmed by price action. I'm wondering what strategy or methology you're using, and in which timeframe you're trading within.

It sounds like you're fishing for a bottom. If you've seen some price action indicative of a bottom or a cup and handle forming on the charts, then why not wait for a confirmation of a reversal? - I believe that would be a far less risk trade.

I'm not familiar with this market's charts as I don't directly trade currencies, but I'm just curious about your methodology and timeframe.

[ItalianFX]

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It sounds like you're fishing for a bottom.

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After thinking about the currencies and how to trade the euro, and reading a post that Mr. Now made, I think it is best just to see the trend and go with it, rather than against it. Until you can be told otherwise, I'd stay with the trend.

I've sent up a demo account with FXCM taking some very small positions and although it's fake and probably doesn't mean anything, I'm up a little over $2k on $50k of playmoney. Ignore that because I know it doesn't mean anything. What I am trying to say is that it's best to just go with the trend.

[kimchi]

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Most of the time, I notice that Market does not ever have to get in sync with my trading. No, Mr. Now always has to get in sync with what Market is saying, now........Adept Trend followers often receive pleasant "surprises" from "news".


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Excellent post. I'll drink to that.

[HoldingFolding]

After listening to this podcast by Peabody, I was thinking of doing the opposite. About 37 minutes in he states that he believes the present USD/JPY exchange rate is still way out of whack & should be closer to 80.

What I woud like to do is take $10,000 of my poker money & literally gamble it on the $ being below 105 in, say, a 3/6 month time frame. I'm presuming this involves buying something like a USD 110 put/JPY 110 call that knocks in at 105?

Would this be the best way to go about this? Can anyone recommend a broker where this trade would be feasible?

[ItalianFX]

I do think the Euro is ready for a break and the dollar is looking for some good news to give it a temporary rally, but I'm just unsure when. I think we need to start looking for this move, but not exactly try to catch the top of the EURUSD. We need to let the EURUSD make its move and then get in at a favorable LONG on the EURUSD until the trend changes. If you look at the Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts of the EURUSD, it is quite extended to the upside. It's almost inevitable that this strong rally in the EURO needs to come to a halt for the time being.

Anyone agree/disagree?

[ItalianFX]

[ QUOTE ]
After listening to this podcast by Peabody, I was thinking of doing the opposite. About 37 minutes in he states that he believes the present USD/JPY exchange rate is still way out of whack & should be closer to 80.


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I think if the USDJPY can cross below 100, and take out the stops, we could be headed to the 80ish level.

[Mr. Now]

For the record, Mr. Now engages in trading trends-- not "counter" trends.

Genuine trading in genuine trends is not supported by strongly held beliefs about the validity of predictions.

The prediction idea leads to other rigid beliefs about specific future price movement, such as "the dollar has to bottom soon", "gold is overbought and must fall", etc.

The dollar might bottom.

The dollar might rise, fall, or move sideways.

ArturiusX might think Mr. Now's trading philosophy sucks, or doesn't suck, etc.

None of this matters since the dollar and ArturiusX behave as they intend to behave now, regardless of any predictions about them.

[ItalianFX]

I think Arturius was talking to OP.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
For the record, Mr. Now engages in trading trends-- not "counter" trends.

Genuine trading in genuine trends is not supported by strongly held beliefs about the validity of predictions.

The prediction idea leads to other rigid beliefs about specific future price movement, such as "the dollar has to bottom soon", "gold is overbought and must fall", etc.

The dollar might bottom.

The dollar might rise, fall, or move sideways.

ArturiusX might think Mr. Now's trading philosophy sucks, or doesn't suck, etc.

None of this matters since the dollar and ArturiusX behave as they intend to behave now, regardless of any predictions about them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't talking to you, but what you're saying makes zero sense.