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#21
11-07-2007, 06:01 PM
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Re: Nice Bet China
[ QUOTE ]
That is implying they will balance not by selling dollars and buying Euros and other "strong currencies", but rather by reducing their dollar reserves by inveting them. So it would be incorrect to assume (as it seems much of the public has done because they didn't take time to understand the statements and instead jumped to the conclusion that it meant China selling $ and buying other currencies) that "balancing" necessarily means swaping reserves in one currency for another. It could just mean (and reading the actual statements it likely does mean) that they will be holding less dollars, but they will do so by investing them. [/ QUOTE ] This makes sense. [ QUOTE ] Also, I think it actually is very good for the dollar to do this. The more dollars invested in the Chinese system means the more dependent their system becomes on the dollar (thus dumping it would hurt them even more). [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't make sense. If the Chinese invest dollars into their economy they will do so buy buying things which aren't dollars. Whether its steel and lumbar for factories, paying for mineral rights, buying existing companies in europe or the states there will be more dollars on the market and a major buying pulling out. This is a decoupling of their economy to the dollar and there is no way around it. 
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#22
11-07-2007, 11:00 PM
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Re: Nice Bet China
[ QUOTE ]
you think interest rates are going up? that is the opposite of what ive seen and read pretty much everywhere. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure who you're responding to but if you are responding to Barron, he's talking about the 10-year yield (price) going up (down) relative to the 2-year yield (price)
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#23
11-07-2007, 11:58 PM
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Re: Nice Bet China
[ QUOTE ]
you think interest rates are going up? that is the opposite of what ive seen and read pretty much everywhere. [/ QUOTE ] no i don't think interest rates are going up. i think the yield curve will steepen and break even inflation will increase. on a separate note, i do think that long term US treasury yeilds will overall rise, especially on the long end in the next few years for many reasons. Barron
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#24
11-09-2007, 12:39 PM
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Re: Nice Bet China
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I know what number 2 entails exactly Probably too late for number 1 as the two year is already going/has gone nuts [/ QUOTE ] in terms of the steepener, yea it is already close to 80bps (i came into it when it was 40bps)...so might not want to start the position now. i'd be reducing it since signal went down as a result of the latest market movement. short innacurate version for long BEI: buy 1 unit of 10yr TIPS short (either in reverse repo or short futures) 8.5/7.5 units of US 10yr Barron [/ QUOTE ] Big day for 10-year
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#25
11-09-2007, 01:09 PM
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Re: Nice Bet China
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I know what number 2 entails exactly Probably too late for number 1 as the two year is already going/has gone nuts [/ QUOTE ] in terms of the steepener, yea it is already close to 80bps (i came into it when it was 40bps)...so might not want to start the position now. i'd be reducing it since signal went down as a result of the latest market movement. short innacurate version for long BEI: buy 1 unit of 10yr TIPS short (either in reverse repo or short futures) 8.5/7.5 units of US 10yr Barron [/ QUOTE ] Big day for 10-year [/ QUOTE ] do you know where ic an get daily (like market data center at WSJ) TIPS prices/yields? and yes huge day for 10yr. and for yen. thats probably my biggest call so far other than the steepener (2yr pretty much moved the same as 10yr...spread about 76bps) Barron
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#26
11-09-2007, 01:37 PM
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Re: Nice Bet China
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Linear Mode
