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#32
11-02-2007, 08:17 AM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
No doubt about that fear ItalianFX. I just don't think I'm right on this one. When I make a plan and things don't cooperate, it is usually a pretty sure signal that I've missed something.
I got knocked out at breakeven last night at 1.4467. Looking at the EUR/USD right now its at 1.4490. I never expected it to move that high again. Look what happened last time the market went down 300 points, the EUR/USD moved huge. It didn't budge yesterday on that same 300 point Dow move. Something is wrong. As for the jobs report, I'm not sure it matters. The ADP report was up big, Jobless claims was a good number and Monster jobs report was good, the employment part of the ISM was good. I think the whisper number is high and even if the unemployment number is good, it will probably just meet whisper. If it is moderate then it won't meet whisper. And if it is bad, then all hell will break loose. If that report is bad, the dollar could collapse to 1.46. Just doesn't appear to be alot of upside here. I'm just not taking that risk on 10 lots. I may have cut the trade too soon, but there isn't any sense in fighting the tape right here... I might give the trade another try if there is a moderate report and the market gets out of hand. There are a ton of stops right over 1.45 EUR/USD. Might provide another entry point to try the trade again. 
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#34
11-02-2007, 08:39 AM
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Re: Predict the direction of the Dollar thread
I just don't think it matters. 10 minutes after a monster jobs number and the EUR/USD is 1.4483, right where is was before the report came out. Dollar should have rallied hard. It should have rallied hard yesterday on the Dow move down. Dollar is much weaker than we think OR something we can't see is holding it down.
We are just missing something.
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